000 AXNT20 KNHC 010649 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Nov 01 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning... A cold front is passing through 31N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida near 28N81W, to the coastal waters of the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the easternmost parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to the southeast of the cold front. Strong or faster winds are from 90W westward. Strong winds are from 28N northward from 90W eastward. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere from 90W eastward. Gale-force winds are forecast to be in the Gulf of Mexico for the next 24 hours or so. ...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning... The cold front is forecast to be along 31N77W 22.5N78W on Wednesday night/Thursday morning, in about 24 hours. Expect N winds that range from 20 knots to 30 knots, with gusts to gale-force to the NW of the cold front. Expect also sea heights that will range from 8 feet to 13 feet from 27N northward. Please, read the latest NHC High Seas forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau, to 11N15W, to 08N20W 09N25W. The ITCZ continues from 09N25W, to 10N28W 07N32W 06N40W 06N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N southward from 37W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds that are associated with the Gulf of Mexico cold front. Rough seas are in the western two-thirds of the part of the Gulf of Mexico that is from 90W eastward. Rough seas cover the NW part of the area, and they lead to very rough seas that are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from near Ft Myers, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds and very rough seas are noted in the wake of the front. Winds may reach strong gale with seas building to 20 ft over the Bay of Campeche tonight and tomorrow. The front will move southeast of the basin by tomorrow morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force over the Bay of Campeche by tomorrow evening. Winds and seas will also begin to diminish across the NW Gulf tomorrow, and across much of the basin on Thu. However, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will continue to affect the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Fri before diminishing Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... ...INVEST-AL97... A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 16N70W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from Hispaniola southward between 63W and 75W. The precipitation pattern remains disorganized. The environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for more development during the next several days. It is possible that a tropical depression may form by the latter part of this week. The system is forecast to move generally westward, in the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea. This weather system has the potential to produce heavy rains in parts of Central America toward the end of the week. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 18N77W, in the eastern half of Jamaica. A surface trough extends northward from the low pressure center, beyond the central Bahamas. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is between Jamaica and Cuba, and in the southern parts of the Windward Passage. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, are within 210 nm of the coast, from 80W in Panama northwestward. The clouds and the precipitation are around the periphery of Tropical Storm Pilar, that is near 12N89W in the Pacific Ocean. Moderate or slower wind speeds, and slight seas, are in the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period that ended at 01/0000 UTC, are: 3.63 in Curacao. Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of low pressure over the east-central Caribbean Sea remains disorganized. While environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for further development during the next several days, a tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system moves generally westward over the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds are expected across the basin through tomorrow morning. At that time, a strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean, reach from E Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu morning, then drift westward Fri morning, before dissipating on Sat. Strong to near gale NE winds and rough seas will follow the front through Fri night before diminishing on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds that are associated with the Atlantic Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico cold front. A first surface trough extends from a 33N70W 1007 mb low pressure center, through 31N72W, to a 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 28N74W. The surface trough continues through the central Bahamas, to a 1008 mb eastern Jamaica low pressure center. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 60W westward. A second surface trough is along 31N47W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 24N52W, to 18N54W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N to 15N between 50W and 55W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N northward between 40W and 60W. A third surface trough is along 31N23W 28N32W 20N37W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 43W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from 18N northward from 25W eastward. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh winds cover most of the area. A weak low is centered northeast of the NW Bahamas near 28N74W. This system will move northeastward ahead of an approaching strong cold front. The front is expected to enter the NW waters late tonight, reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu morning, then gradually move back westward to the NW Bahamas by Fri morning, before dissipating on Sat. Strong to near gale NE winds are expected behind the front through Sat. $$ mt/gr