000 AXNT20 KNHC 312341 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Nov 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near New Port Richie, Florida to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Gale force winds and high seas are noted in the wake of the front, from 25N into the Bay of Campeche, where ship VROQ reported 40 kt NNW winds at 1800 UTC. Winds may reach storm-force in gusts, mainly over the SW Gulf late tonight through Wed, with seas building to 20 ft. The front will move SE of the basin by Wed morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force over the SW Gulf by Wed evening. Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough near the Senegal/Guinea Bissau border then continues SW to near 05N39W. The ITCZ extends from 05N39W to 04N44W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted over the E Atlantic from 02.5N to 11N from the African coast to 35W, but are numerous within 240 nm of the coast. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 42W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from New Port Richie, Florida to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. This front will continue to move across the Gulf waters followed by gale force winds and high seas. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A wide band of mainly low clouds with scattered light to moderate showers is S of 25N and within 240 nm behind the front. This cloudiness is also banked up along the E slope of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico where drizzle has been reported. For the forecast, gale force winds may reach severe gale with seas building to 20 ft over the Bay of Campeche tonight through Wed behind the cold front. The front will move southeast of the basin by Wed morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force over the Bay of Campeche by Wed evening. Winds and seas will also begin to diminish across the NW Gulf tomorrow, and across much of the basin on Thu. However, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will continue to affect the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Fri before diminishing Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of low pressure (AL97) over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues this evening, but has not become any better organized. Although environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for further development during the next several days while the system moves westward over the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea, a tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America towards the end of the week. Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 7 days. A broad area of low pressure remains over the N central Caribbean, centered just SE of Jamaica, where afternoon scatterometer data confirmed the circulation of a 1009 mb low pressure near 17N76W. Showers and thunderstorms are observed over parts of portions of Jamaica and across the waters between the island and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across most of the central and NW Caribbean light and variable winds prevail with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. Moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are occurring in the eastern Carribbean. For the forecast, a trough of low pressure over the E Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development during the next several days while the system moves westward over the central and SW Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds are expected across the basin through tomorrow morning. At that time, a strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean, move from E Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu morning, then drift westward Fri morning, before dissipating on Sat. Strong to near gale NE winds and rough seas will follow the front through Fri night before diminishing on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak area of low pressure is located near 28N75W. No significant convection is depicted in association with this low. A surface trough extends from the low southward across to the central Bahamas. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 20N northward between 66W and 73W. High pressure over the central Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward across the waters between 57W and 68W. Another 1010 mb low pressure system is near 25.5N50.5W. Fresh NE winds are mainly on the NW and NE sides of the low center with seas of 6 to 7 ft. To the NE, fresh to locally strong NE winds, with seas 8 to 10 ft are occurring from 27N to 31N between 30W and 38W, associated with a surface trough. South of 23N and E of 40W, mainly light to gentle winds are seen based on satellite derived wind data. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the Atlantic forecast waters S of 24N and E of 60W. Lastly, scattered showers and a few mild thunderstorms related to an upper-level low are affecting the waters E of the Lesser Antilles from 10N to 15N between 47W and 52W. For the forecast W of 55W, weak low pressure centered just northeast of the NW Bahamas will move northeastward ahead of an approaching strong cold front. The front is expected to enter the NW waters late tonight, reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu morning, then gradually move back westward to the NW Bahamas by Fri morning, before dissipating on Sat. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are expected behind the front through Sat. $$ Stripling