000 AXNT20 KNHC 310557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning... A cold front is passing through the Florida Big Bend, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 20N at the coast of Mexico. Expect gale- force NW to N winds, and sea heights that range from 10 feet to 14 feet, from 20N to 25N to the west of the cold front. Expect also: NW to N winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, elsewhere to the west of the cold front. The 24-hour forecast position for the cold front is: 28N83W TO 22N90W TO 18.5N93W. Expect NW to N gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 18 feet, from 23N southward to the west of the cold front. Moderate to fresh winds are to the east and to the southeast of the cold front. Rough to very rough seas are from 90W westward. Slight seas are from 90W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the east and to the southeast of the cold front. Please, read the latest NHC High Seas forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal borders of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 11N18W. The ITCZ continues from 11N18W, to 07N30W, 06N38W 04N43W 05N50W 10N62W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gulf of Mexico cold front. Gale-force winds, and rough to very rough sea heights, are associated with the cold front. A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. The front will move SE across the entire basin by Wed evening with gale-force winds and quickly building seas following the front through Wed. Winds may reach storm-force in gusts mainly over the SW Gulf late Tue through Wed with seas building to 20 ft. Winds and seas will begin to subside from the NW on Thu as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean and central Bahamas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... INVEST-AL97: A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 16N66W, in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 210 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, and within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Moderate seas are in the eastern half of the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh SE winds are to the east of the 1008 mb low pressure center. Gentle winds are elsewhere from 70W eastward. The precipitation pattern for this feature is beginning to show signs of organization. This system is expected to move westward during the next several days. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for more development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form by the latter part of this week, as the system enters the central or the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This system has the potential to produce heavy rains in parts of Central America toward the end of this week. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 17N76W, just to the south of the eastern part of Jamaica. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to Panama near 09N82W. A surface trough also extends northward along 76W beyond SE Cuba. An east-to-west oriented surface trough extends from the Cayman Islands beyond northern Belize. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 17N to Jamaica between 75W and 77W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the NE two-thirds of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate is spread throughout the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower wind speeds, and slight seas, are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period that ended at 31/0000 UTC, are: 0.51 in Curacao, and 0.08 in Guadeloupe. A trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that is beginning to show signs of organization. This system is expected to move westward during the next several days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week as the system enters the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are expected across the basin through early Wed. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean midday Wed and begin to stall from central Cuba to Belize on Thu, then begin to drift westward Fri and Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... ...INVEST-AL96 in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean... A 1005 mb low pressure center is near 26N76W. A surface trough is along 75W/76W from 31N southward, beyond SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 60W westward. The precipitation has become minimal. This system is embedded in a region of very dry mid-latitude air with strong upper level winds. More development of this system is no longer anticipated. The system is forecast to turn northward slowly, and then northeastward by the middle part of this week. A surface trough is along 30N11W, to a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 31N18W. The trough continues to a first 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 32N29W. The trough continues to 27N40W, to a second 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 26N48W, and finally to 22N55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 60W eastward. Moderate to fresh winds are within a 240 nm radius of each low pressure center. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 28N northward from 40W eastward. Moderate seas are elsewhere in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 20N46W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean that is from 10N to the 30N11W 22N55W surface trough, from 60W eastward. A well-defined area of low pressure is located near 26.5N75.5W or about 80 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas. This system is forecast to turn slowly northward and then northeastward by the middle part of this week. A surface trough extends from the low southward through the central Bahamas. A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW waters Wed morning, reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu morning, then stall from 31N60W to the central Bahamas Thu night. Strong winds with gusts to gale-force are expected behind the front through Thu night. $$ mt/gr