000 AXNT20 KNHC 302347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Oct 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is moving across the western Gulf. The front will move SE across the entire basin by Wed evening. Gale force winds and building seas to 16 ft are ongoing S of Tampico between the coast of Mexico and the front. Winds may reach storm-force in gusts mainly over the SW Gulf late Tue through Wed. Rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. The forecast calls for winds of 30 to 40 kt and seas in the 12 to 21 ft range over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, Tue evening into Wed morning. Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough the coast of Senegal near 12N16W then continues SW to near 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 06N39W to 07N49W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 15W and 39W, and from 11N to 17N between 45W and 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the western Gulf from SW Alabama to 24N94W to Veracruz, Mexico. Gale force winds and building seas are ongoing behind the front S of 26N. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are noted elsewhere ahead of the front, with seas generally 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE across the entire basin by Wed evening with gale-force winds and quickly building seas following the front through Wed. Winds may reach storm-force in gusts mainly over the SW Gulf late Tue through Wed with seas building to 20 ft. Winds and seas will begin the subside from the NW on Thu as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean and central Bahamas. CARIBBEAN SEA A 1010 mb low pressure is drifting northward over the central Caribbean near 15N76W with a trough through the Windward Passage and into the central Bahamas. Disturbed weather continues over much of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Upper level divergence is supporting scattered heavy showers and tstms over the the SE Caribbean as well as S of Dominican Republic. Moderate SE winds are to the E of this area of convection along with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, the low will drift NW and weaken through Wed, while new low pressure develops S of Hispaniola. This new system and associated weather is expected to move slowly westward through the remainder of the week, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form late this week when the system reaches the W central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are expected across the basin through early Wed. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean midday Wed and begin to stall from central Cuba to Belize on Thu, then begin to drift westward Fri and Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An area of low pressure with associated disorganized showers is located about 100 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas continues to produce an area of gale-force winds on its northeast side. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. This system is moving into an area of strong upper- level winds and dry air, and the chances of it becoming a short- lived tropical storm are decreasing. The low is expected to move slowly northwestward today and then turn northward and northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force this afternoon. High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge southward across the waters between 50W and 60W. Another low pressure system is near 27N48.5W. Fresh to strong winds are mainly on the NW side of the low center with seas of 8 to 10 ft. A cold front extends across the western Canary Islands to 27.5N18W, then transitions to a stationary front to a 1005 mb low pressure located N of area near 32N33W. Moderate NE winds and seas around 8 ft are seen in the wake of the front. Another trough extends from 30N30W through 28N44W. A few showers are near the trough axis. Gentle to moderate winds dominate most the Atlantic E of 60W with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft across the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, a 1008 mb low pressure center near 25.5N74.5W continues to produce an area of gale-force winds within 150 nm NE of the low. A surface trough extends from the low southward through the SE Bahamas. The low is expected to move slowly west- northwestward today, with winds diminishing below gale-force, and then turn northward and northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday and weaken further. A strong cold front is forecast to move into the NW waters Wed, and reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas early Thu. $$ Ramos