000 AXNT20 KNHC 301805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1755 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has entered the NW Gulf. The front will move SE across the entire basin by Wed evening. Gale force winds and building seas will follow the front beginning early this afternoon. Winds may reach storm-force in gusts mainly over the SW Gulf late Tue through Wed. Rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. The forecast calls for winds of 30 to 40 kt and seas in the 12 to 21 ft range over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, Tue evening into Wed morning. Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough the coast of Guinea near 10N15W then continues westward to near 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N26W to 06N37W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 16W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the NW Gulf from the central Louisiana coast to just N of Tampico, Mexico. Gale force winds and building seas are expected behind the front. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details. High pressure centered over the SE of the United States extends a ridge across the remainder of the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere ahead of the front, with seas generally 4 to 6 ft. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is over the SE Gulf associated with weak trough. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE across the entire basin by Wed evening. Gale force winds and quickly building seas will follow the front through Wed. Winds may reach storm- force in gusts mainly over the SW Gulf late Tue through Wed. High seas to 20 ft are expected across the SW Gulf by late Tue. Winds and seas will begin the subside from the NW on Thu as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean and central Bahamas. CARIBBEAN SEA A disturbance over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to move westward during the next several days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form late this week when the system reaches the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern Caribbean. Winds in the eastern Carribbean are gentle to moderate, with seas 3 to 5 ft. A surface trough is analyzed along 66W. An elongated area of low pressure remains over the central Caribbean, with a surface trough extending from the eastern Cuba to a 1010 mb low pressure located near 15.5N76.5W. Light and variable winds and seas in the 1 to 3 ft range are noted in association with this system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the Yucatan Channel in association with a trough. For the forecast, a 1010 mb low pressure is nearly stationary over the central Caribbean near 15.5N76.5W with a trough extending northward into the SE Bahamas. Disturbed weather continues over much of the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system and associated weather is expected to move slowly westward during the next several days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form late this week when the system reaches the W central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are expected across the basin through early Wed. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed and reach from central Cuba to Belize by Thu, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An area of low pressure with associated disorganized showers is located about 100 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas continues to produce an area of gale-force winds on its northeast side. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. This system is moving into an area of strong upper- level winds and dry air, and the chances of it becoming a short- lived tropical storm are decreasing. The low is expected to move slowly northwestward today and then turn northward and northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force this afternoon. High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge southward across the waters between 50W and 60W. Another low pressure system is near 27N48.5W. Fresh to strong winds are mainly on the NW side of the low center with seas of 8 to 10 ft. A cold front extends across the western Canary Islands to 27.5N18W, then transitions to a stationary front to a 1005 mb low pressure located N of area near 32N33W. Moderate NE winds and seas around 8 ft are seen in the wake of the front. Another trough extends from 30N30W through 28N44W. A few showers are near the trough axis. Gentle to moderate winds dominate most the Atlantic E of 60W with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft across the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, a 1008 mb low pressure center near 25.5N74.5W continues to produce an area of gale-force winds within 150 nm NE of the low. A surface trough extends from the low southward through the SE Bahamas. The low is expected to move slowly west- northwestward today, with winds diminishing below gale-force, and then turn northward and northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday and weaken further. A strong cold front is forecast to move into the NW waters Wed, and reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas early Thu. $$ KRV