802 AXNT20 KNHC 291955 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Oct 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off the Texas coast on Monday morning, with strong to near gale-force N to NW winds expected behind the front. As the front moves eastward across the basin, gale-force winds will develop behind the front along the coast of Mexico by Monday afternoon. Seas will build to 10 to 16 ft. As the front continues moving across the Gulf on Monday night and into Tuesday, gale-force winds will also develop near Veracruz by early Tue morning. Seas are expected to build 12 to 21 ft. Across the rest of the Gulf, widespread fresh to strong winds with 8 to 10 ft seas can be expected. The front will exit the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. The gale-force winds will come to an end by Wednesday night. Fresh to strong winds will continue across most of the basin into next weekend. Seas will begin to subside toward the end of the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas, near 23N70W with a central pressure around 1007 mb, continue to show signs of organization. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N to 26N between 62W and 70W. Seas are up to 13 ft near the low. A short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves WNW. By Tuesday, however, strong upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances of further development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. The chance of development over the next 48 hours is high. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 05N37W to 08N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 18W and 42W. A trough is located north of the ITCZ from 15N46W to 10N53W with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 09N to 15N between 40W and 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge continues to extend across the Gulf of Mexico. This is giving way to benign conditions across the basin with no significant convection noted at this time. Surface observations and the latest scatterometer shows gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin. Buoys also show seas are ranging 3 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the high pressure centered across the middle Atlantic coastal states extends westward to N Louisiana and will continue to support fresh to locally strong winds in the southeast and south central Gulf through today. Gentle NE winds are expected by Mon as the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure settles southward along about 31N. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon morning, and move SE across the entire basin by Wed evening. This front will bring gale force winds and quickly build seas over the western Gulf beginning Mon thru Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on Invest 96L which is located north of the Dominican Republic. A trough extends south of this low to the central Caribbean, just south of the Dominican Republic. Heavy rainfall from this system along the trough could continue across the NE Caribbean through the next week, which could worsen any ongoing flooding hazards. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from the central Caribbean to a 1008 mb low near 14N76W to the coast of southern Nicaragua. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 7W and 84W. Moderate southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough and the low pressure. Gradual development is possible while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 kt. The chances of formation are low within 48 hours and low in 7 days. Outside of Invest 96L and the monsoon trough and low pressure in the central Caribbean, isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Outside of that, no significant convection is noted across the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient across the NW Caribbean and SE U.S. is weakening, which is leading to moderate to locally fresh winds in the NW portion of the basin. Light to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the basin based on the latest scatterometer data. Seas range 3 to 5 ft across the Caribbean. For the forecast, the elongated low pressure extending from the nearby Atlantic along 70W and trough shift W-NW and into the W central Caribbean through early this week, with winds diminishing across the NW Caribbean later today. Scattered strong thunderstorms will shift westward with the trough through Mon. Large N-NE swells across the W Atlantic will continue to move through the NE Caribbean Passages through today. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on Invest 96L positioned north of the Dominican Republic. Surface ridging extends across the southwest N Atlantic anchored by high pressure in the SE U.S. The pressure gradient between this high pres and Invest 96L is leading to moderate to fresh winds off the Florida and Bahamas coast. Buoys and altimeter data show seas are ranging 6 to 9 ft. Seas up to 8 ft extend as far south as the Leeward Islands. East of Invest 96L, surface ridging extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1017 mb high pres near 24N41W. Under the influence of this high, scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate winds with seas ranging 5 to 8 ft. South of Post- Tropical Cyclone Tammy, seas ranging 8 to 12 ft are noted from 29N northward between 49W and 57W. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N23W to 29N35W then becomes stationary from that point to 30N38W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are noted N of the front, and moderate SW winds S of the front. Light to gentle winds are noted around the stationary front. Seas range 8 to 9 ft near the front. Light to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the eastern Atlantic with seas 6 to 10 ft per altimeter data. For the forecast W of 55W, Invest 96L will shift NW through Mon before weakening. A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form later today. By Monday, however, strong upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances of further development. Expect strong winds to near gale-force near the low center and numerous strong thunderstorms along and E of the trough extending into the NE Caribbean through tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure centered across the middle Atlantic states extends eastward and to the N of the trough and low, while Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy is near 32N 53.5W at 11 AM EDT, moving E-SE east at 15 kt. A strong cold front will enter the NW waters Wed. $$ AKR