000 AXNT20 KNHC 272358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Oct 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Tammy: Tropical Storm Tammy is centered near 32.5N 61.4W at 27/2100 UTC or 170 nm E of Bermuda, moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are 25 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 32N to 35N between 57W and 61W. A turn to the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the east over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Tammy will begin to move away from Bermuda Saturday morning. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tammy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Western Atlantic Rough Seas: High pressure across the middle Atlantic coastal states is combining with a low level trough than extends from S of Tammy to the NE Caribbean to produce a large area of fresh to locally strong winds and very high seas between Tammy and the Bahamas. A large area of 12 ft to 15 ft seas is just northeast of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These associated high seas between Tammy and the Bahamas will slowly begin to subside Sat through Sun. Mariners should either avoid this region or use extreme caution in this area, depending on your vessel type and cargo. Hazardous surf and rip currents are also anticipated along the coast of central Florida, the Bahamas, Greater Antilles and the northern Leeward Islands. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues to 07N35W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 15N bewteen 25W and 51W. The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough extends from Central America along the coast of Nicaragua at 11N84W to 12N74W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 13N between Colombia and Nicaragua. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A set of three 1025 mb high pressure centers over the Carolinas extend a ridge west-southwest to the central Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting moderate to fresh E winds N of 24N with seas of 4-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds are elsewhere S of 24N from the Straits of Florida to the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, high pressure centered across the middle Atlantic coastal states will continue to support fresh to strong winds strong in the southeast and south central Gulf through early Sun. Mainly gentle NE winds are expected by Mon as the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure settles over the region. The next cold front is forecast to reach the NW Gulf on Mon. This front will bring gale force winds and quickly building seas over the western Gulf beginning Mon evening. The front will move SE through the entire basin by Wed afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the SE United States along with lower pressure with the eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough is forcing fresh to strong NE winds over the Lee of Cuba as well as the Windward Passage tonight. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate, except for moderate to fresh winds in the remainder NW Caribbean and E Caribbean E of 64W. Seas are 5-8 ft in the NW Caribbean, the Windward Passage and the far E Caribbean due to wind waves, as well as NNE swell. Seas elsewhere over the Caribbean are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the middle Atlantic U.S. coast combined with elongated low pressure extending from the W central Atlantic across the NE Caribbean will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the NW and north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage through Sun. Gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Large N-NE swell across the W Atlantic will continue to move through the NE Caribbean Passages through Sun. Broad low pressure is expected to develop over the W central Caribbean by Sun and move slowly northward and into the Bahamas through Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Tammy east of Bermuda, and rough seas across the SW North Atlantic. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 30N29W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon to the south is forcing generally gentle to moderate NE to E over most of the subtropical central and eastern Atlantic along with seas to 9 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Tammy is located near 32.5N 61.4W 988 mb at 2100 UTC, moving NW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt gusting to 65 kt. Tammy is expected to turn NE tonight and then move E to SE over the weekend, and will brush the far NE offshore waters Sat and Sat night, then gradually weaken E of 55W through Tue. High pressure across the middle Atlantic coastal states is combining with a low level trough than extends from S of Tammy to the NE Caribbean to produce a large area of fresh to locally strong winds, with very high seas between Tammy and the Bahamas. These high seas will slowly subside Sat through Sun. Elongated low pressure will develop across the SE Bahamas Sun and gradually drift NW through Tue. $$ Ramos