000 AXNT20 KNHC 261801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Oct 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Storm Force Wind Warning: Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy is centered near 31.0N 59.0W at 26/1200 UTC or 305 nm ESE of Bermuda, and drifting west-northwestward around 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Storm to hurricane force winds and seas of 28 to 31 ft are present from 30N to 32N between 59W and 62W. Gale to strong gale S to W to NW winds and 22 to 28 ft seas are evident from 29N to 30N between 59W and 62W. Scattered showers are noted near and southwest of the center north of 27N between 58W and 68W. Tammy is expected to drift generally westward and gradually weaken over the next couple of days. Western Atlantic Very Rough Seas: Tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1027 mb over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy will continue to support a large area of strong to near-gale force NE winds and large swell from 20N to 31N between the east coast of Florida and 65W, and also from 20N to 29N between 50W and 65W through Friday. Seas in the first area range from 9 to 18 ft, and are 9 to 22 ft in the second area. Mariners should either avoid this region or use extreme caution in this area, depending on your vessel type and cargo. Hazardous surf and rip currents are also anticipated along the coast of central Florida, the Bahamas, Greater Antilles and the northern Leeward Islands. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast near the Gambia/Guinea border, then continues southwestward to near 07.5N22W. An ITCZ continues west-northwestward from 07.5N22W across 08N32W to 11N41W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted up to 80 nm along either side of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 230 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms near Panama and northwestern Colombia. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found farther north across the southwestern Caribbean Basin. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is causing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the western Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted for the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Mainly moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to support moderate to fresh winds, locally strong in the eastern Gulf, through the remainder of the week. Mainly gentle NE winds are expected this weekend as the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure settles over the region. The next cold front is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf on Mon. This front could bring gale force winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent easterly winds are taking advantage of divergent upper- level winds south of an upper-level trough to produce widely scattered to scattered moderate convection across the central and eastern basin, including waters near the ABC Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail in the northwestern and north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage through the week. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about Storm to Hurricane Force winds associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy southeast of Bermuda. In addition, near-gale winds and very rough seas are persisting across the western Atlantic. A cold front reaches southward from east of Tammy across 31N54W to 24N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring up to 80 nm along either side of this feature. Farther south, convergent southeasterly winds are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Windward Islands. To the east, a surface trough is causing similar conditions from 09N to 17N between 40W and 51W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the areas mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in moderate mixed swells are seen north of 22N between 47W and 50W. To the east north of 20N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to E trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident between the northwest Africa coast and 47W, including the Canary Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 22W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Light to gentle with locally moderate southeasterly and monsoonal winds with 4 to 5 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, there is a possibility that Post- Tropical Cyclone Tammy could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics while it meanders over the northwestern Atlantic through early next week. High winds and hazardous seas are still present, and a Storm Warning is now in effect for portions of the area southeast of Bermuda. Gales will continue into Fri. The gradient between Tammy and high pressure near the Carolinas will continue to support strong to near gale- fore NE winds and very rough seas well west of Tammy across much of the area through the week. $$ Chan