000 AXNT20 KNHC 171044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A 1010 mb low pressure is located near 10.5N41W, about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 15N and between 36W and 48W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are found north of the system, especially from 12N and 20N and between 37W and 45W. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression will likely form during the next few days while the system moves westward to west- northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. This disturbance has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17.5N16W and continues southwestward to 05N24W to 05N31W to AL94 near 10.5N41W to 08N51W. Other than the convection associated with AL94 described in the Special Features section above, scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 07N and between 12W and 32W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf of Mexico remains under the influence of a 1024 mb high pressure system extending from the U.S. Great Plains southward to Tampico, Mexico, allowing for a dry continental airmass to dominate the basin. Fresh northerly winds are still occurring over most of the basin, although winds have recently diminished to moderate over the NW Gulf due to proximity of the high pressure. Strong NW winds are likely still occurring near Veracruz, with seas 8-10 ft offshore Veracruz. Elsewhere south of 26N, seas are 5 to 9 ft. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over the NE Gulf and 2 to 5 ft in the NW Gulf. For the forecast, Fresh N winds across the Gulf will gradually diminish today from north to south. Seas will gradually subside tonight into Wed as high pressure continues to build over the region. A frontal system will bring moderate to fresh winds for the NE Gulf on Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from southeastern Cuba to just east of the Cayman Islands and to southern Belize. Satellite imagery depicts scattered showers and thunderstorms near the frontal boundary in the southern Gulf of Honduras, and also between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen from 09N to 16.5N between 71W and 84W. To the northwest of the stationary front, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are occurring, along with seas 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are evident in the south- central and southeast Caribbean, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the stationary front should remain in place through Wed before dissipating Wed night. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean through Wed as high pressure builds over the area. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic about midway between the Windward Islands and Cabo Verde Islands has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation trough 48 hours with a high chance of formation beyond 48 hours. This system is forecast to approach the waters E of the Leeward Islands Fri into Sat bringing increasing winds and seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Invest 94L located halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. A stationary front is draped across the western Atlantic, extending from 31N65W to the central Bahamas near 23N74.5W and to eastern Cuba near 21N76.5W. Clusters of scattered thunderstorms are noted along and within 120 nm SE of the front. One such cluster in over the SE Bahamas. The other is occurring north of 28.5N and east of 67W. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas 6 to 9 ft are occurring from 26N to 31N between 56W and 81W. Winds are weaker farther south, to the north of eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Farther east, a surface trough and 1011 mb low pressure are associated with the remnants of Sean and are producing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 14N to 24N between 50W and 58W. A surface ridge extends from 31N33W to 1020 mb high pressure near 26.5N40W to 24N61W to 19N68W. Gentle winds and 5-6 ft seas are near the ridge axis. In the far NE part of the area, north of 29N and east of 29W, large swell of 8 to 10 ft is subsiding, due to a departing storm system far to the north. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front extending from 31N65W to eastern Cuba will remain in place before dissipating Wed night or Thu. Expect fresh winds over waters north of 25N through this morning, on both sides of the front. Winds and seas will diminish tonight as high pressure builds over the area in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, the next frontal system will move offshore the southeastern United States Fri night. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are forecast north of 27N Fri night through Sat night with this system. A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic about midway between the Windward Islands and Cabo Verde Islands has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a high chance of formation beyond 48 hours. This system is likely to be near the northern Leeward Islands by Sat, bringing increasing winds and seas. $$ Hagen