000 AXNT20 KNHC 170515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0505 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A 1012 mb low pressure is located near 10N40W, about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and western Africa. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 15N and between 35W and 47W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are found north of the system, especially from 12N and 20N and between 35W and 45W. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression will likely form during the next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. This disturbance has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave previously analyzed at 32W has been absorbed by nearby Invest 94L. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N15W and continues southwestward to 04N30W and then northwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure (AL94) near 10N40W and to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to 10N61W. Other than the convection associated with AL94 described in the Special Features section above, scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 07N and between 16W and 27W. A few showers are also noted near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf of Mexico remains under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure system over the central United States, allowing for a dry continental airmass to dominate the basin and suppress the development of deep convection. Fresh to locally northerly winds and seas of 6-10 ft prevail, except for moderate or weaker winds and wave heights of 3-6 ft in the NW Gulf. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong N winds will continue across most of the Gulf of Mexico through tonight before gradually diminishing Tue. Seas will gradually subside into mid week as high pressure continues to build over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends southeastern Cuba to the Cayman Islands and to Belize. Satellite imagery depict a few showers near the frontal boundary, especially in the Gulf of Honduras, while a dry airmass dominates the NW Caribbean behind the front. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea is under a weak high pressure pattern and no deep convection is present. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to locally strong northerly winds are occurring behind and near the aforementioned front. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are evident in the south-central and southeast Caribbean, along with seas of 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, a stationary front extends from east-central Cuba to southern Belize. The front should remain in place through Wed before dissipating Wed night. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean through Wed as high pressure builds over the area. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic about midway between the Windward Islands and western Africa has now a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation trough 48 hours. This system is forecast to approach the waters E of the Leeward Islands late Fri into Sat bringing increasing winds and seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Invest 94L located halfway between the Lesser Antilles and western Africa. A stationary front is draped across the southwest tropical Atlantic, extending from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and north-central Cuba. A few showers are seen near the frontal boundary. Latest satellite-derived wind data show fresh to strong W-NW winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds are evident ahead of the front to 60W and north of 27N. Seas are 6-9 ft in the area described. Farther east, a cold front enters the basin near 31N53W and continues southwestward to 28N57W. No deep convection is seen near this feature. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. A 1012 mb low pressure near 19N54W, remnants of Sean, continue to produce disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly within 120 nm of the center. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found north of the system. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1022 mb high pressure system near 27N40W that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N64W to east-central Cuba. The front will remain in place before dissipating Wed night or Thu. Expect fresh to locally strong winds over waters north of 25N through tonight, on both sides of the front. Winds and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds over the area in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic about midway between the Windward Islands and western Africa has now a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation trough 48 hours. This system is forecast to approach the northern Leeward Islands Fri into Sat, bringing increasing winds and seas. $$ DELGADO