000 AXNT20 KNHC 161748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 18N southward, moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. The tropical wave is moving through the area of precipitation that also is associated with the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... INVEST-AL94 is a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 09N38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 690 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The precipitation pattern is disorganized The low-level circulation has become better defined since yesterday. The environmental conditions are expected to continue to be conducive for more development. It is likely still for a tropical depression to form within a few days. This system is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward through the central and western sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 12N16W, to 10N20W 08N30W, to the INVEST-AL94 low pressure center, to 08N41W and 08N44W. The ITCZ continues from 08N44W, to 08N58W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon trough southward from the 31W tropical wave, and within 250 nm to the north of the rest of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The NE-to-SW oriented cold front that was in the Gulf of Mexico 24 hours ago, now is passing through the NW Bahamas, to NW Cuba, to northern Guatemala. A surface ridge is passing through the Deep South of Texas, to the coastal plains of Mexico near 19N97W. Rough seas are in the SW corner of the area. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds are from 89W westward. Fresh to moderate winds are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure dominates the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong N winds will continue across most of the Gulf of Mexico through tonight before gradually diminishing Tue. Seas will gradually subside into mid week as high pressure continues to build over the region in the wake of a cold front now located SE of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows broad anticyclonic wind flow in the Caribbean Sea. The exception is an inverted trough in the SW corner of the area. A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, to NW Cuba, to northern Guatemala, and the eastern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the SE of the cold front. A short branch of a surface ridge is along 19N between 60W and the Windward Passage. The monsoon trough is along 11N from 74W in Colombia, beyond SE Nicaragua, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N southward from 71W westward. Other isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N northward between 70W and 80W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 16/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN, are: 1.51 in Merida in Mexico; 1.06 in Nassau in the Bahamas; 0.58 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.56 in Veracruz in Mexico; 0.26 in Bermuda; and 0.17 in Freeport in the Bahamas. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, span the area. A cold front extends from western Cuba to northern Belize. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Tue morning before stalling, and then gradually dissipating into mid-week. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean through late Wed as high pressure builds over the area. Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical depression or storm will develop over the Atlantic by late this week, possibly bringing winds to gale force to the waters east of the Leeward Islands by late week, along with rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A first cold front passes through 31N65W, through the NW Bahamas, beyond NW Cuba. A second front and surface trough are about 210 nm to the east and southeast of the first cold front from 82W northeastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the northwest of the line 31N48W 20N70W. Fresh to strong NW winds are from the first cold front toward the northwest from 73W westward. Moderate and fresh southerly winds are from 20N northward between 60W and 70W. Fresh winds are within 700 nm of the SEAN remnant low pressure center in the NW quadrant. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The remnant 1012 mb low pressure center of SEAN is near 18N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Fresh winds are within 700 nm of the SEAN remnant low pressure center in the NW quadrant. A surface trough is along 31N23W 30N40W 27N51W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the surface trough. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 27N39W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward between Africa and 50W. Mostly moderate seas span most of the area. Some slight seas are from the 1012 mb low pressure center remnant of SEAN southward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front reaching from SE of Bermuda near 31N64W to western Cuba will push eastward until it stalls Tue from E of Bermuda near 32N62W to eastern Cuba, then dissipates through mid week. Expect fresh to locally strong winds over waters north of 25N through tonight, on both sides of the front. Winds and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds over the area in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical depression will develop over the Atlantic by the end of the week, possibly bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas to the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands by late week. $$ mt/gr