000 AXNT20 KNHC 161023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Oct 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and within 180 nm W of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues westward to a 1012 mb low pres (AL94) near 09N37W and to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen on satellite imagery from 06N to 15N and between 37W and 45W, mainly associated with Invest 94L. Similar convection is noted from 01N to 08N east of 20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N winds and 7 to 10 ft seas cover the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of a cold front, which has now exited the basin to the southeast. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue across most of the Gulf of Mexico through tonight before gradually diminishing Tue. Seas will gradually subside into mid week as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the western tip of Cuba to near Tulum, Mexico. Fresh N winds are occurring to the NW of the front. Seas have built to 6 ft in the Yucatan Channel, behind the front. Elsewhere, gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail across the basin, except for the SE Caribbean, northward from the coast of Venezuela to 15N, where moderate trades and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail. Isolated showers and tstorms are occurring within 150 nm in advance of the cold front. Similar activity is also seen from north of Jamaica eastward to near Hispaniola. Scattered strong convection is occurring near the Colombia low south of 13N between 71W and 77.5W. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from central Cuba to the coast of Guatemala near 16N88.5W by early Tue morning before stalling, and then gradually dissipating into mid-week. Fresh NE winds and moderate wave heights will persist over the northwest Caribbean through late Wed as high pressure builds over the area. Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical depression or storm will develop over the Atlantic by late this week, possibly bringing winds to gale force to the waters east of the Leeward Islands by late week, along with rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N67W to the NW Bahamas to just west of Havana, Cuba. Another cold front extends from 31N59W to 28N66W. A surface trough continues from 28N66W to the Bahamas near 24N77W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm either side of the surface trough. Similar activity is noted along and within 120 nm nm east of the eastern cold front. Fresh westerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas cover the western Atlantic, north of 24N and west of 55W. Fresh NW winds and 3-6 ft seas are in the Straits of Florida. High pressure ridging extends from 23N55W to Hispaniola. Farther east, a 1011 mb low pressure (Invest 94) is centered near 09N37W. Convection is described above in the monsoon trough section. Fresh easterly winds and seas to 6 ft are occurring north of the center. Although the environment may not support much development during the next couple of days, conditions are expected to become more conducive thereafter, and a tropical depression is still likely to form by late this week. This system is expected to move westward or west-northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic during the next several days. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. The remnant low of Sean is near 18.5N50W with max winds of 25 kt and peak seas of 9 ft over a relatively small area. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N to 22N between 49W and 52W. The remnant low is expected to dissipate early Tue. A surface trough extends from 30N29W to 29N42W to 27N51W. Isolated showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the axis. A 1020 mb high pressure is near 26N38W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft north of 28N between 26W and 42W in westerly swell. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front reaching from 31N67W to the NW Bahamas to just west of Havana, Cuba will push eastward until it stalls Tue from Bermuda to central Cuba, then dissipates through mid week. Expect fresh to locally strong winds over waters north of 25N through tonight, on both sides of the front. Winds and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds over the area in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical depression will develop over the Atlantic by the end of the week, possibly bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas to the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands by late week. $$ Hagen