000 AXNT20 KNHC 160511 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Oct 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Sean is near 18.2N 49.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Peak seas are 8 ft near the center. A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected overnight and Monday morning. Weakening is forecast, and Sean is expected to dissipate into an open trough by Monday night or Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the final NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory for Sean at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N and between 26W and 33W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau and continues westward to a 1012 mb low pres (AL94) near 09N36W and to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen on satellite imagery from 06N to 15N and between 33W and 44W, mainly associated with Invest 94L. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is draped across the SE Gulf of Mexico, extending from SW Florida to NE Yucatan. A few showers and a thunderstorm or two are present near the frontal boundary and in the Bay of Campeche. The rest of the Gulf is under a strong ridge located over northern Mexico and a dry continental airmass dominates the basin behind the aforementioned front. The Gale Warning that was in effect for the SW Gulf has been allowed to expire. However, strong to locally near gale-force northerly winds continue to affect the offshore waters of Veracruz in the western Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Elsewhere behind the cold front, fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate seas prevail. Ahead of the front, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, a cold front extends from Cape Sable, FL near 25.5N81W to just NW of Cancun, Mexico near 21.5N88W. The front will move southeast of the basin late tonight. Strong N winds across much of the Gulf will gradually diminish Mon night into Tue. Seas will gradually subside into mid week as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak ridging dominates the Caribbean Sea, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight seas. A weak pre-frontal trough extends from western Cuba to the eastern Yucatan peninsula and a few showers are noted in the NW Caribbean near the boundary. No deep convection is present in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, winds and seas will increase over the far northwest Caribbean starting tonight following a cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel. The front will stall from central Cuba to southern Belize Mon evening, and dissipate into mid week. Fresh NE winds and moderate wave heights will persist over the northwest Caribbean through late Wed as high pressure builds over the area. Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical depression or storm will develop over the Atlantic by late this week, possibly bringing winds to gale force to the waters east of the Leeward Islands by late week, along with rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on the remnants of TD Sean. A cold front extends from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and southern Florida. Recent satellite images show a few showers ahead of the frontal boundary, especially near the northern coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas. Latest satellite-derived wind data captured fresh to locally strong westerly winds behind the cold front. Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft. Farther east, another cold front enters the tropical Atlantic, extending from 31N61W to 26N70W, where it transitions into a surface trough that continues southwestward to the northern Cuban coast. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are noted north of 26N and west of 55W to the frontal boundary first mentioned. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. A 1011 mb low pressure (Invest 94) is centered near 09N36W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 15N and between 33W and 44W. Fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are occurring north of the center. Although the environment may not support much development during the next couple of days, conditions are expected to become more conducive thereafter, and a tropical depression is still likely to form by late this week. This system is expected to move westward or west-northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic during the next several days. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Yet another cold front enters the basin near 31N37W and quickly transitions into a surface trough that continues to 28N51W. A few showers are noted ahead of the boundary. Fresh westerly winds are found north of 29N and between 22W and the surface trough. Seas of 8-10 ft are evident north of 27N and between 27W and 44W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure positioned near 25N34W, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front reaching from 31N71W to Ft. Lauderdale, FL will push southeastward until it stalls Tue from Bermuda to central Cuba, then dissipates through mid week. Expect fresh to locally strong winds over waters north of 25N through Mon night, on both sides of the front. Winds and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds over the area in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical depression will develop over the Atlantic by the end of the week, possibly bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas to the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands by late week. $$ DELGADO