000 AXNT20 KNHC 142338 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Sean is centered near 16.5N 44.8W at 14/2100 UTC or 1050 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and north of the center from 14N to 20N between 43W and 47W. The depression will have a northwestward motion through tonight, with a turn back toward the west-northwest on Sunday. Weakening is anticipated, and Sean will likely become a post-tropical remnant low on Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sean NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94) Gale Warning: A tropical wave has an axis along 32W from 15N southward. A low pressure is noted along the wave axis near 09N32W with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 32W and 35W. The convection associated with this system has not become any better organized this afternoon. However, environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves westward or west- northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance of development in 48 hours. In anticipation of this system developing, a gale warning has been issued for this system. Seas will build to over 12 ft by Sun morning. Additional information on this system, including the gale warning, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Please refer to www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 21W from 18N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 50 nm of the trough axis from 05N to 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 09N23W to AL94 to 09N37W. There is no ITCZ present at this time. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 23W and 29W in addition to 07N to 12N and E of 17W to the African coast. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico, stretching from the western Florida Panhandle near 30N87W to near Tampico, Mexico near 22N98W. A pre-frontal trough extends from SW Florida near 26N81W to the southern Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the western Bay of Campeche, S of 24N and W of 91W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are noted behind the front with light to gentle winds ahead of it. Seas range 3-5 ft, according to NWS buoys, in the NW Gulf. Seas are potentially up to 6-7 ft off the South Texas coast. Across the rest of the basin, seas range 2-3 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Port Charlotte, Florida to near Merida, Mexico by early Sun, then sweep to the southeast of the area Sun night. Expect fresh winds and rough seas following the front into Tue. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through mid week as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Surface ridging extends across the Caribbean, anchored by a 1013 mb high pressure located just north of Hispaniola. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough and the Colombian coast near 11N76W. Otherwise, the rest of the basin remains quiet. Moderate trade winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras and along the Venezuela coastline. Light to gentle trade winds prevail elsewhere. Smooth to slight seas are noted across the Caribbean. For the forecast, gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas will persist through late Sun. Winds and seas will increase over the far northwest Caribbean starting following a weak cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel. The front will stall from central Cuba to Belize Mon, and dissipate into mid week. Fresh NE winds and moderate wave heights will persist over the northwest Caribbean through late Wed as high pressure builds over the area. Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical depression or storm will develop over the Atlantic during the next several days, possibly bringing winds to gale force and very rough seas to the waters east of the Leeward Islands by late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section on T.S. Sean and the Gale Warning for AL94. Across the western and central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N46W to 26N69W. Fresh NW winds are noted W of the front with strong SW winds ahead of the front, N of 26N and W of 35W. A warm front stretches from 31N76W to the end of the cold front near 26N69W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted along this boundary. A trough extends off the South Florida coast. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off this coast and the northern Bahamas. A line of thunderstorms is noted within 100 nm of the cold front in the central Atlantic from 23N to 31N. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted near the tail-end of the cold front and warm front from 23N to 28N between 64W and 72W. Light to gentle winds prevail N of the front between 54W and 69W. Moderate winds prevail south of the front between 50W and 77W. Across the eastern Atlantic, surface ridging extends across the area. Light to gentle winds prevail with slight seas. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front extending from 23N55W to 23N65W to 25N70W will shift east of the area overnight. Rough seas lingering east of 60W behind the front will subside this evening. Expect fresh to strong winds over waters north of 30N and west of 70W into Sun associated with a second front that will move off the northeast Florida coast overnight. A reinforcing trough will maintain fresh NW winds off northeast Florida Mon. The front will slow down and weaken from Bermuda to central Cuba by early Tue, then stall and dissipate from 31N60W through eastern Cuba by mid week. $$ AReinhart