000 AXNT20 KNHC 141029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sean is centered near 15.4N 43.4W at 14/0900 UTC or 1140 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12 ft mainly within 60 nm in the northern semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-16N between 40W-45W. A northwestward motion is expected today and tonight, then a turn back toward the west- northwest is forecast on Sunday. Weakening is anticipated, and Sean will likely become a post- tropical remnant low by late this weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sean NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale force 989 mb low pressure is centered just N of the area near 33N53W, moving eastward. A cold front extends SW from the low to 31N53W to 26N71W, then it is stationary from that point to 30N79W. Gale force SW to W winds are currently occurring north of 28N between 51W and 56W, confirmed by recent ASCAT satellite data. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are likely occurring within the gale area. Seas of 8 to 16 ft are occurring in the strong to near-gale area. The gale force winds and rough seas will continue through today along with and ahead of the cold front as it moves eastward, covering the area north of 26N between 40W and 60W. By this evening, expect strong to near gale force winds and seas over 12 ft to affect waters north of 26.5N between 35W and 50W through Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Invest AL94: A 1008 mb low pressure area is centered near 09N30W. Numerous strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 26W and 32W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 02N to 14N between 25W and 34W. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development this weekend and early next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves westward or west-northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of development within the next 48 hours and a high chance within the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 20W from 20N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N and E of 22W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to invest AL94 to 07N36W. For convection, see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from Ft. Myers, FL west-southwestward to 25N87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough. Another surface trough extends from 25N89W southward to the Yucatan Peninsula near 17N92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring south of 23N between 91W and 96W, mainly W of the surface trough over portions of southeastern Mexico. Winds in the basin are gentle to moderate with 2 to 3 ft seas, except up to 4 ft in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, gentle breezes and slight seas will persist today across most of the basin, with scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the southeast Gulf along a trough. Winds and seas will increase following a cold front expected to enter the northwest Gulf this morning, reach from near Port Charlotte, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by early Sun, then sweep to the southeast of the area Sun night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak ridge extends from N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to the N coast of central Cuba. Middle and upper level subsidence is limiting shower activity over most of the basin, but scattered showers and noted in the SW Caribbean, south of 12N due to the proximity of the monsoon trough. The latest ASCAT satellite wind data depict moderate winds across the southern and western Caribbean, with gentle winds over the NE Caribbean, to the NE of a line extending from 13N61W to Jamaica. Fresh E to SE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 2-4 ft across the basin, except 4-6 ft in the NW Caribbean, west of 84W, highest in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds off Honduras between high pressure over Cuba and lower pressure off Belize will diminish this morning as the high pressure weakens. This pattern will leave mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across the Caribbean through late Sun. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel Sun night, start to slow down and weaken from central Cuba to northern Belize Mon, then stall dissipate from eastern Cuba to central Honduras through mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning over the central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Sean and invest AL94. A stationary front extends from 27N73W to Jacksonville, FL. Fresh SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are occurring to the NE of the stationary front, mainly west of 75W and north of 28N. A cold front extends from the gale force low to 27N75W, mentioned in the Special Features section. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 60 nm SE of the cold front. A warm front extends SE from the gale force low to 30N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 27N between 41W and 49W. The area of winds 20 kt or stronger associated with the gale force low pressure stretches north of 24N between 44W and 63W. A surface ridge extends from 1019 mb high pressure near 29N25W to 20N52W to a 1013 mb high near 24N74W. Gentle or weaker winds prevail to the south of a line stretching from Jacksonville, FL to 27N75W to 23N67W to 21N59W to 21.5N50W. Seas in this area are 2 to 5 ft. To the north of that line, winds are moderate or stronger. For the forecast W of 55W, winds and seas will diminish through this afternoon as the front weakens and shifts east off the area. Expect fresh to strong winds over waters north of 30N tonight and Sun associated with a second front that will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight. A reinforcing trough will maintain fresh to strong NW winds off northeast Florida Mon. The front will slow down and weaken from Bermuda to central Cuba by early Tue, then stall from 31N60W through eastern Cuba by mid week. $$ ERA