000 AXNT20 KNHC 122319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Oct 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system is noted across northern Florida. A a 1001 mb low pres off the NE Florida coast near 31N80W and a 1001 mb low pres right off the Apalachicola coast in the NE Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front stretches between these two lows, a cold front extends SW off the Gulf of Mexico low to 24N90W. Numerous strong convection is noted in the Atlantic, N of 27.5N and W of 69W. A line of strong thunderstorms are also off the SW Florida coast from 24N to 27N and W of 84W. In the Atlantic, strong winds prevail off the Florida coast to near 72W with gale-force winds occurring south of the front, N of 30.5N between 74W and 76W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft, N of 28N between 73W and 80W. Winds are beginning to diminish over the Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds noted off the west coast. Seas are still around 8 ft in the NE Gulf waters. As this frontal system propagates east away from Florida, the area of gale-force winds will increase across the northern offshore waters and the high seas. Seas are expected to build to near 17 ft by Fri evening near the strongest winds. The gale-force winds will end by Sat evening, with a large area of strong winds continuing through Sun. Seas will diminish by Mon. Seas in the Gulf will drop below 8 ft by tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. Tropical Storm Sean: Tropical Storm Sean is centered near 13.8N 38.2W at 12/2100 UTC or 830 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted west of the sheared storm, from 13N to 17N between 34W and 39W. Peak seas are around 14 ft, with the 12 ft seas extending 105 nm in the NE quadrant, 75 nm in the SE quadrant, and 75 nm in the NW quadrant. Sean is expected to move NW or WNW during the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Tropical Storm Sean NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 24W from 17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pres (AL94) is along the wave near 09N24W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near and north of the low from 09N to 12N between 23W and 26W. While environmental conditions are currently only marginally favorable for slow development over the next couple of days, they are forecast to become more favorable by early next week. A tropical depression could form by the middle of next week as this system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 13N17W to AL94 to 11N30W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 16N between 15W and 33W and from 10N to 14N between 41W and 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front continues to move southeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Winds are beginning to diminish around this system. Moderate W to NW winds are noted north of the front and the 1001 mb low pres near Apalachicola, Florida with moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of it. Across the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, gentle to locally moderate winds are noted in the northern basin with light to gentle winds in the SW Gulf. Seas are still 6 to 8 ft in the eastern Gulf with 2 to 4 ft in the western portions of the basin. For the forecast, the low over the Florida Panhandle and associated cold front will move to W Atlantic waters tonight. The S to SW fresh winds over the SE Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms in the SE Gulf will also move E of the area. High pressure across the Atlantic will build modestly westward into the eastern Gulf Fri through early Sat, before the next cold front moves into the NW Gulf Sat morning and across the entire basin by Sun evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid to upper level ridging over the Caribbean is bringing fairly benign conditions over the area. Scattered showers are noted in the SW basin along the East Pacific monsoon trough, from 09N to 11N between 75W and 83W. Fresh to strong winds are noted off the NE Honduras coast, with moderate to fresh winds occurring across the NW Caribbean. This is giving way to 4 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted off the NW Colombia and Venezuela coast. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds prevail over the rest of the basin. Moderate seas are noted over the central and eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate early Fri and prevail through Tue. Fresh to strong SE to S winds in the Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean will continue through Fri night. A cold front will sink S-SE across the western Atlantic over the weekend and act to maintain the weak trade wind flow across the basin and support moderate to fresh northerly winds in the NW Caribbean Mon and Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for the gale warning over the SW N Atlantic, T.S. Sean, and the Tropical Waves section for AL94. Outside of the complex frontal frontal system in the SW N Atlantic, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the rest of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos northward to 27N and W of 67W. Seas are up to 4 ft in this region. In the central Atlantic, a stationary front is draped from 31N42W to 26N54W to 31N71W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along most of the front within 100 nm. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds are noted north of this front between 44W and 54W. Moderate SW winds are ahead of the front N of 26N and W of 38W. Seas range 5 to 7 ft. South of this system, gentle winds prevail to the ITCZ with seas 4 to 6 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, another stationary front is draped from 31N25W to 31N38W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted along this front within 150 nm of it. Moderate SW winds are ahead of the front. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail across this portion of the Atlantic with seas ranging 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure over the Florida Panhandle will emerge across the W Atlc tonight. This will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the NE and central Florida offshore waters through tonight as a cold front associated with the low moves across the area. Gale force winds will also develop early tonight across the northern offshore waters N of 30N just SE of the low and ahead of the front. Gale force winds will then continue to affect the offshore waters N of 28N as the cold front extend from 31N65W to 28N72W Fri morning. Winds will diminish below gale-force early Sat as the front exit the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms as well as rough seas are expected with this frontal system. $$ AReinhart