000 AXNT20 KNHC 121807 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Oct 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...NE Gulf of Mexico/Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-force Wind Warning... A 1002 mb low pressure center is near 30N85W, in the Florida Big Bend. A cold front extends southwestward from the low pressure center, to 25N91W. A surface trough continues from 25N91W to the coast of Mexico near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico along 95W/96W. A warm front extends from the 1002 mb low pressure center to 32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 180 nm to the south/southeast/east of the Gulf of Mexico frontal boundary, from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate is from 26N southward from 90W westward. Scattered strong is in the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward from 70W westward. Expect fresh to strong winds in the Atlantic Ocean, during the next 12 hours or so, from 28N northward between 76W and 81W. Expect W gale-force winds, and rough seas, by tonight, 30.5N to 31N between 72W and 74W. Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 28N northward from 68W westward. Expect in the Gulf of Mexico: from 26N northward between 82W and 88W strong to near gale-force SW to W winds, and rough seas, during the next 12 hours or so. The conditions will start to improve tonight. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...TROPICAL STORM SEAN... The center of Tropical Storm Sean, at 12/1500 UTC, is near 13.1N 37.2W. Sean is moving toward the NW, or 305 degrees, 09 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The radius of tropical-storm force winds is: within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or greater are: within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 12 feet. Expect also: E winds from 20 knots to 33 knots, and sea heights from 8 feet to 11 feet, within 15N35W to 17N38W to 15N40W to 13N41W to 11N39W to 12N35W to 15N35W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm of the center in the W semicircle, and within 360 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Tropical Storm Sean NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center (INVEST AL94) is along the tropical wave near 09.5N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N southward from 31W eastward. It is possible that the environmental conditions may support some slow development of this system during the next several days. The weather system is forecast to move generally westward through the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Please, refer to the website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border areas of Senegal and The Gambia, to the INVEST-AL94 1010 mb low pressure center, to 10N30W. The monsoon trough also is along 10N40W 08N45W. The ITCZ is along 08N45W 08N49W 10N56W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about 1002 mb low pressure center, the winds, and the sea heights. Rough seas are in the NE corner of the area, off the coasts of the Florida Big Bend and the Florida Panhandle. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are elsewhere in most of the northern half of the Gulf. Slight seas are in the SW corner of the area. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1002 mb low over the Florida Panhandle and associated cold front extending to the central Gulf will move to W Atlantic waters this afternoon and S to SW fresh to strong winds over the E Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds this afeternoon. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms will also move E of the NE basin. High pressure across the Atlantic will build modestly westward into the eastern Gulf Fri through early Sat, before the next cold front moves into the NW Gulf Sat morning and across the entire basin by Sun evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers much of the Caribbean Sea, except for the areas that are about 160 nm to the south of the Greater Antilles. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving through the area. Strong SE winds are in the NW corner of the area. Fresh to moderate SE winds are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas are nearly everywhere from 80W eastward, and in the NW corner of the area. Slight seas are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 74W westward, beyond Costa Rica/Nicaragua, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward from 74W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 12/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN, are: 0.17 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate early Fri and prevail through Tue. Fresh to strong SE to S winds in the Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean will continue through Fri night. A cold front will sink S-SE across the western Atlantic over the weekend and act to maintain the weak trade wind flow across the basin and support moderate to fresh northerly winds in the NW Caribbean Mon and Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Sean. Please, read the Tropical Waves section, for details about the INVEST-AL94 low pressure center and tropical wave. Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the gale-force winds and the frontal boundaries, for the area that is from the Gulf of Mexico and moving into that part oof the Atlantic Ocean that is to the east of Florida. A cold front/stationary front covers the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 25W and 70W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward from 20W westward. Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas, cover much of the Atlantic Ocean, away from Tropical Storm Sean, away from the INVEST-AL94, and away from the gale-force winds of the NW Atlantic Ocean that is to the east of Florida. Low pressure of 1002 mb over the Florida Panhandle will emerge across the W Atlc this afternoon, and will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the NE and central Florida offshore waters through this evening as a cold front associated with the low moves across the area. Gale force winds will develop this evening across the northern offshore waters N of 30N just SE of the low and ahead of the front. Gale force winds will then continue to affect the offshore waters N of 28N as the cold front extend from 31N65W to 28N72W Fri morning. Gale force winds will diminish early Sat as the front exit the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms and high seas are expected with this frontal system. $$ mt