000 AXNT20 KNHC 100627 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning (AL93): A 1008 mb low pres is centered near 20N95W over the Bay of Campeche producing disorganized convection. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted north of the low to 26N. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for some additional development while the system moves slowly northward during the next day or so. The low is forecast to merge with a frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning as it moves northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast to produce gale-force, especially in gusts, winds over portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Seas will peak near 11 ft. The system is then expected to move into the SW Atlantic on Thursday, while winds and seas will diminish in the Gulf. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for details. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A 1008 mb low pres near 08N29W is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from 03N to 14N and between 23W and 34W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 29W. A scatterometer pass from a few hours ago indicate that fresh to strong southerly winds are found south of 12N and between 23W and 30W. This activity has changed little in organization since yesterday. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This disturbance has a high chance of development within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A western Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 83W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W southwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure (AL92) near 8N29W to 10N43W. ITCZ extends from 10N43W to 11N61W. A few showers are observed near the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning expected in the northern Gulf on Wed. A stationary front is draped across the Florida Straits and extends southwestward to near the 1008 mb low pressure (AL93) in the Bay of Campeche. No deep convection is seen on satellite imagery in association with the frontal boundary. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a 1015 mb high pressure over northern Florida. Outside of the influence of AL93, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to the western Bay of Campeche. Weak 1008 mb low pressure is located near 20N95W along the stationary front. The front will lift northward Tue into Wed, reaching along 28N. The low pres is expected to strengthen along the front Tue night over the NW Gulf, and move eastward across the N central and NE Gulf Wed through Wed evening, then inland across N Florida Wed night. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms and strong to gale force winds will accompany this low pressure system and frontal boundary across the northern Gulf on Tue night through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough stretches across central Cuba to the Cayman Islands, producing scattered convection about 120 nm east of the trough axis. A drier airmass dominates the remainder of the Caribbean, suppressing the development of deep convection. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring in the south-central portion of the basin. Seas of 4-6 ft are found in the central and eastern Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off northern Colombia and NW Venezuela. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, weak high pressure across the Atlantic near 22N61W extends a ridge westward along 22N to the SE Bahamas, and will shift slightly W-NW across the remainder of the Bahamas through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean into Tue then become easterly through Thu. Scattered thunderstorms will prevail across the waters N of 18N near a tropical wave currently along 82W through Wed. Strong winds will pulse near the coast of NW Venezuela and N Colombia Tue evening. Fresh SE to S winds will develop across the NW Caribbean early Wed and become strong Wed evening through Thu as low pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds in the Gulf of Honduras will remain fresh Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES and SPECIAL FEATURES sections above. A stationary front remains draped across the southwestern tropical Atlantic, extending from 31N69W to the Florida Straits. A pre- frontal trough is noted about 120 nm ahead of the stationary front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found north of 24N and east of the frontal boundary to 57W. Fresh to locally strong winds are present near the strongest convection. Similarly, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is affecting the central Bahamas due to a surface trough that stretches to Cuba. Elsewhere west of 60W, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Moderate seas are evident west of 60W. A couple of surface troughs are found in the central tropical Atlantic but no deep convection is noted with these boundaries. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under a weak subtropical ridge positioned west of the Canary Islands. A decaying northerly swell of 8-10 ft are affecting the waters north of the deep tropics and between 30W and 60W. Moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure across the central Atlantic near 22N61W extends a ridge westward along 22N to the SE Bahamas. A weak stationary front extending from 31N70W to near Key Largo, Florida, will gradually dissipate through mid-week, as high pressure builds W across the remainder of the Bahamas. Large NE swell will continue across the waters east of 65W through Tue before gradually subsiding. Low pressure along a front is expected to move eastward across NE Florida Wed night, then continue eastward, bringing strong to gale force winds east of northern and central Florida Thu, then moving E of 70W Thu night, and across the NE waters Fri and Fri night. Active convection with rough and confused seas are expected to accompany this low pressure. $$ DELGADO