577 AXNT20 KNHC 091029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Oct 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave is along 25W, south of 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 11.5N between 23W and 30W. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This disturbance has a MEDIUM chance of development within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 77W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 12N to 20N. A broad and weak trough is reflected at the surface with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 11.5N15.5W and continues to low pres 1010 mb near 08N25W to near 08N47W. The ITCZ continues from 08N47W to 10N63W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is depicted south of the trough from 05N to 11N between the west coast of Africa and 18W. This convection is assumed to be associated with the next tropical wave that is expected to emerge from west Africa today. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm S of the trough between 30W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the SW Florida coast near 25.5N81W to 22N89W to the Bay of Campeche near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A small 1010 mb low pressure center has spun up in the past 24 hours in the east central Bay of Campeche, just SE of the front. This is helping to focus scattered moderate to strong convection to the south of 21N across the entire Bay. Fresh NE winds continue between the front and 22N, while strong NW winds persist within 60 nm of the coast offshore of Veracruz. Seas are 7-10 ft in N to NE swell S of 22N, except 10-11 ft just offshore of Veracruz. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds are north of 22N and the stationary front with 3-7 ft seas. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted in the north Gulf, Straits of Florida, and the Yucatan Channel. Broken multi-layered clouds and light elevated convection prevail across much of the N and W Gulf. For the forecast, the front will drift SE today and reach from the Florida Straits to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, then retreat northward as a warm front Tue through Wed. Strong NW winds behind the front offshore Veracruz, Mexico, will diminish by late afternoon, and seas will subside to 6 ft or less by late afternoon. Low pressure is expected to develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and move eastward across the N central and NE Gulf Wed through Wed evening, then inland across N Florida Wed night. Scattered thunderstorms, strong winds, and high seas will accompany this low pressure system. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE trades prevail across the basin east of the tropical wave, where seas are of 4-7 ft. Skies are nearly cloud free there. West of the tropical wave, trades are light to gentle with seas of 2-3 ft. For the forecast, a weak ridge alone 22N extending into the SE Bahamas this morning will shift slightly W-NW across the remainder of the Bahamas through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean into Tue night, then become easterly through Thu. Fresh S winds will develop across the NW Caribbean early Wed and become strong Wed night through Thu as low pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Active convection will accompany the northern portion of the tropical wave and shift into the NW Caribbean through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES and SPECIAL FEATURES sections above. A stationary front extends from 31N72W to SE Florida near Boca Raton. Moderate N to NE winds are noted north of the front, where seas are 3 to 6 ft in NE to E swell. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 124 nm SE of this front. A surface trough to the E is nearly stationary from 25N71W to 28N61W, and is the focus of scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 120 NM either side of the trough. Another weak surface trough extends from 26N49W to 31N50W. In between these two trough reside 1015 mb high pressure centered near 22N60W. Farther east, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N27W to 22N44W. Isolated moderate convection in the eastern Atlantic is within 180 nm E of this front. Long period northerly swell continues across much of the Atlantic waters, with wave heights of 8-12 ft north of 15N between 18W and 61W. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades prevail across the tropics S of 15N and W of 40W, where seas are 5-8 ft in merging N and SE swell. For the forecast W of 55W, the weakening cold front stalled across the NW waters to south Florida will drift SE eastward of the Bahamas today, then gradually dissipate through mid-week, as high pressure builds W across the remainder of the Bahamas. Large NE swell will continue across the northern waters through Tue before gradually subsiding. Low pressure is expected to move eastward across NE Florida Wed night, then continue eastward across the NW waters Thu, move E of 70W Thu night, and across the NE waters Fri and Fri night. $$ Stripling