000 AXNT20 KNHC 090543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Oct 09 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave is along 23.8W, south of 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 12.5N between 22W and 31W. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days.A tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This disturbance has a MEDIUM chance of development within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75.5W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 19N between 72W and 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 11N15W and continues to 08.5N46.5W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N46.5W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted south of the trough from 05N to 11N between the west coast of Africa and 16W. This convection may be associated with the next tropical wave that is emerging from west Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends 25.5N82W to 23N85W to 20N93W. Fresh to strong winds and seas are 8-11 ft from 19N to 25N west of 91W. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche near 19N92W enhancing scattered showers in the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds are analyzed north of the stationary front with 4-7 ft seas. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted in the north Gulf, Straits of Florida, and the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, a cold front extends from the Florida Everglades to the Central Bay of Campeche tonight, and will stall from the Florida Straits to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Mon, then retreat northward as a warm front Tue night through Wed. Strong NW winds behind the front offshore Veracruz, Mexico, will diminish Mon. Low pressure is expected to develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and move E across the N central and NE Gulf Wed, then inland across N Florida Wed night. Scattered thunderstorms and strong winds may accompany this low pressure system. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above. Moderate to fresh trades are east of the tropical wave with seas of 4-7 ft. West of the tropical wave, trades are light to gentle with seas of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 22N to the SE Bahamas tonight, and will shift slightly W-NW across the remainder of the Bahamas through Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean into Tue night, then become easterly through Thu. Fresh S winds will develop across the NW Caribbean Wed through Thu as low pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES and SPECIAL FEATURES sections above. A stationary front extends from 31N72W to 26N80W. A surface trough is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 24N to 29N between 62W and 71W. Another weak surface trough is from 25N50W to 31N53W. Farther east, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N24W to 23N39W. Scattered moderate convection in the eastern Atlantic is depicted from 26N to 31N between 15W and 19W in association with another surface trough. Long period northerly swell with significant wave heights of 8- 12 ft is north of 16N between 19W and 63W. Seas are 4-8 ft north of 20N and west of 60W in the W Atlantic. Seas are 4-9 ft across the tropical Atlantic south of 16N. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 22N to the SE Bahamas tonight. A weakening cold front has stalled tonight from 31N72W to south Florida, and will drift SE eastward of the Bahamas through Mon, then gradually dissipate through mid-week, as high pressure builds W across the Bahamas. Large NE swell will continue across the northern waters through Tue before gradually subsiding. Low pressure is expected to move eastward across NE Florida Wed night, then across the far NW waters through Thu night. $$ KRV