000 AXNT20 KNHC 082336 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Oct 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave is along 23W, south of 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave near 08N23W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 12N between 18W and 31W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This disturbance has a MEDIUM chance of development within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 18N between 71W and 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 10N15W and continues to 08N43W. The ITCZ continues from 08N43W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection related to the Special Feature's low/wave, no significant convection is noted at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... An early season cold front extends 26N81W to 21N93W to 18N94W. Strong winds and seas are 8-11 ft from 19N to 27N west of 88W. A 1012 mb low pres is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche near 19N92W enhancing scattered showers in the area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are analyzed north of the cold front with 4-7 ft seas. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the front will stall from the Florida Straits to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Mon, then retreat northward as a warm front Tue night through Wed. Strong NW winds behind the front offshore Veracruz, Mexico, will diminish Mon. A low pressure is expected to develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and move E across the N central and NE Gulf Wed, then inland across N Florida Wed night. Thunderstorms and strong winds may accompany this low pressure. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above. Moderate to fresh trades are east of the tropical wave with seas of 4-6 ft. West of the tropical wave, trades are light to gentle with seas of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 21N to the Turks and Caicos. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean into Tue night. Fresh S winds will develop across the NW Caribbean Wed into Thu as low pressure crosses eastward through the Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES and SPECIAL FEATURES sections above. A cold front extends across the NW Forecast Waters from 31N69W to 26N80W. A weak surface trough is from 24N50W to 30N51W. 1015 mb high pressure is near 20N56W. Scattered moderate convection is just north of the high in a narrow convergence zone, from 24N to 27N between 56W and 68W. Farther east, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N24W to 23N39W. A 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 28N23W. Scattered moderate convection in the eastern Atlantic is from 23N to 31N between 17W and 25W. Long period northerly swell with significant wave heights of 8-12 ft is north of 16N between 19W and 60W. Seas are 4-7 ft north of 16N and west of 60W in the W Atlantic. Seas are also 4-7 ft across the tropical Atlantic south of 16N. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 21N to the Turks and Caicos. The cold front currently will gradually slide east early this week but remain generally N of 25N through mid-week, as high pressure builds W to the south. Large NE swell will continue across the NE waters through Mon night. Low pressure is expected to move eastward across NE Florida Wed night, then across the far NW waters through Thu night. $$ ERA