000 AXNT20 KNHC 081743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Oct 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave is along 21W, south of 14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. 1010 mb low pressure is near 08N21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N between 19W and 30W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This disturbance has a MEDIUM chance of development within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The previously analyzed central Atlantic tropical wave has dissipated near 50W. A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 73W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave from 08N to 12N between 76W and 79W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the vicinity of the tropical wave across the central Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 10N15W and continues to 1010 mb low pressure near 08N21W then to 08N43W. The ITCZ continues from 08N43W to 08N60W. Convection is described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a strong early season cold front extends from Everglades National Park in Florida to near Heroica Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds are within 90 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 8-10 ft from 19N to 25N west of 92W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are analyzed north of the cold front with 4-7 ft seas. Around 1500 UTC, a 1012 mb low pressure formed in the Bay of Campeche ahead of the cold front near 20N93W. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of this low pressure. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE then stall from the Florida Straits to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Mon. High pressure and fresh to strong winds will follow the front into this evening, with strong winds continuing offshore Veracruz, Mexico, through early Mon. The front will then drift northward Tue through Wed as southerly return flow gradually develops across most of the basin. Low pressure is expected to develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and move E across the N central and NE Gulf Wed, then inland across N Florida Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above. A weak surface trough is analyzed in the Gulf of Honduras and far NW Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades are east of the tropical wave with seas of 4-6 ft. West of the tropical wave, trades are light to gentle with seas of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop across the NW Caribbean Wed and Wed night as the Atlantic ridge shifts W and builds through the Bahamas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES and SPECIAL FEATURES sections above. A strong early season cold front extends across the NW Forecast Waters from 31N73W across the northern Bahamas to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A weak surface trough is over the southeast Bahamas. Another weak surface trough is from 26N50W to 31N53W. 1018 mb high pressure is near 21N54W. Scattered moderate convection is just north of the high in a narrow convergence zone, from 23N to 25N between 50W and 56W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N26W to 23N40W. 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 23N28W. Even farther east, 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 24N18W, a couple hundred nautical miles southwest of the Canary Islands. Scattered moderate convection in the eastern Atlantic is from 23N to 31N between 20W and 26W. Long period northerly swell with significant wave heights of 8-12 ft is north of 16N between 19W and 60W. Seas are 4-7 ft north of 16N and west of 60W in the W Atlantic. Seas are also 4-7 ft across the tropical Atlantic south of 16N. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front currently off of SE Florida will continue to move SE and reach from 30N70W to the Florida Straits by Mon evening. The front will then stall and gradually dissipate into mid-week. As this occurs, weak high pressure will build W-NW along 24-25N across the Bahamas and into S Florida through Wed. Large NE swell will continue across the NE waters into Mon night. Low pressure is expected to move eastward across NE Florida Wed night, then across the far NW waters into Thu night. $$ Mahoney