000 AXNT20 KNHC 072316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 19W, from 03N to 14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 13N between 15W and 23W. A tropical wave is along 46W, from 06N to 18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A tropical wave extends along 70W from 18N southward over northern Venezuela. The westward motion is estimated to be 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection are noted along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues to 09N48W. The ITCZ continues from 09N48W to 10N62W. Outside of the convection described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is near the monsoon trough from 07N to 13N between 24W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. To the N of it, a reinforcing cold front extends from 29N83W to 25N97W. Latest surface observations indicate strong to near-gale force N winds within the northern Gulf waters behind the cold front. Additionally, N winds are strong to near-gale force within 90 nm of the coast of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico. 8-10 ft seas prevail behind the cold front N of 23N and W of 90W. Localized seas to 8 ft are also noted offshore Tampico and Veracruz. Light to gentle winds and 2-5 ft seas are analyzed in the southeast Gulf ahead of both frontal boundaries. For the forecast, the front will stretch from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the Bay of Campeche Sun morning, then gradually weaken and stall from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula Mon. High pressure and fresh winds, strong in the western Gulf, will follow the front into Sun evening. The front will then drift northward Tue through Wed as southerly return flow gradually develops across most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean. East of the tropical wave, trades are moderate to fresh with 4-6 ft seas. West of the wave, trades are light to gentle, with seas of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 22N into the Turks and Caicos. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will continue across the eastern Caribbean tonight then shift S of 17N and spread into the central Caribbean Sun through Mon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany a tropical wave from Hispaniola to eastern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly trades will return to the east and central Caribbean, and moderate SE winds will develop across the NW Caribbean, Tue through Wed, as the Atlantic ridge shifts W and builds across Florida. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above. The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe are north of 31N, and marine conditions are improving across the W Atlantic. Fresh to strong W to SW winds are within an area N of 29N between 60W and 68W. Moderate to fresh W to SW winds are elsewhere north of 25N and west of 55W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along a surface trough, analyzed from 26N54W to 23N69W. A 1016 mb high pressure is just SE of this trough, centered near 22N54W. A stationary front enters the eastern Atlantic waters near 31N27W and extends to 20N45W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm of the cold front. A 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 21N31W. Seas are 8-12 ft are N of 25N between 24W-59W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft in open waters. For the forecast W of 55W, Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 22N and into the Turks and Caicos, S of low pressure centered N of Bermuda. Associated cyclonic winds will gradually diminish over the waters N of 29N through tonight. Large NE swell will continue through Sun night over NE waters. Weak high pressure will build W-NW along 24-25N across the Bahamas and into Florida Mon through Wed. $$ ERA