000 AXNT20 KNHC 071041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along the W coast of Africa has been added to the 0600 UTC surface map, along 17W, south of 16N. The wave is estimated to be moving near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 13W and 20W. A complex tropical wave is analyzed along 43W from 06N to 17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 08N to 16N between 40W and 47W. Further east, satellite imagery and precipitable water products show distinct cyclonic turning along 34W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is about this circulation from 07N to 12.5N between 33W and 39W. A tropical wave is analyzed across the central Caribbean with axis near 71.5W, S of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and a few small thunderstorms dot the waters of the Caribbean N of 14N to Hispaniola between 68W and 73.5W. Satellite imagery and precipitable water products show cyclonic turning along 68W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 61W and 69W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues to 08.5N18W to 11N34W to 09.5N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09.5N46W to 10.5N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 12N between 20W and 28W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal boundary extends across the basin from the central Florida Panhandle to 23N95W to the Mexican coast just N of Veracruz. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the front S of 24N, while large patches of light to moderate rain aloft are seen N of the front to coastal waters, and W of 86W. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail behind the front N of 21N. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft N of the front, except to 8 ft across the waters offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico. Light to gentle variable winds and slight seas are elsewhere ahead of the front, except for moderate NE winds across the east and central Bay of Campeche, where seas are 3-4 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and reach from Cedar Key, Florida to 21N96W to the western Bay of Campeche this evening, then from Sanibel, Florida to 21N95W to the central Bay of Campeche Sun morning before weakening and stalling across the Straits of Florida to 20N95W on Mon. High pressure and fresh to strong winds will follow the front through Sun evening, with seas building 8 to 11 ft. Strong winds will continue offshore of Veracruz through early Mon. The front will then drift northward Tue through Wed as southerly return flow gradually develops across most of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the eastern to central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas 5 to 6 ft are to the E of the wave axis in the eastern Caribbean. Fair skies prevail across the remainder of the NE Caribbean, to the north of the convection described with the wave. West of the wave and in the remainder Caribbean, light to gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen south of 13N between 73W and 82W. Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic near 23N53W extends a ridge westward along 23N into the SE Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will continue across the eastern Caribbean today then shift S of 17N and spread into the central Caribbean tonight through Mon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the tropical wave through tonight. Moderate easterly trades will return to the east and central Caribbean, and moderate SE winds will develop across the NW Caribbean Tue night through Wed, as the Atlantic ridge shifts W and builds across Florida. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for convection details in the tropical Atlantic. The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe are centered N of 31N. A second surface low just SW of the remnants of Philippe near 34N69W if producing cyclonic winds across the waters N of 25N and W of 53W. Fresh to strong W to SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in mixed swell are occurring north of 27N between 55W and 71W. Deep layered SW winds are converging to produce scattered moderate to strong convection N of 26N between 54W and 62W, while other similar activity is from 20N to 22N between 66W and 75W. Moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere N of 22.5N between 55W-75W. A warm front extends from 31N55W to 27N53W. 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 23N53W. Over the eastern north Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N27W to 21N44W. Gentle northerly winds and seas 7 to 11 ft in N swell follow this front while moderate to fresh SW winds are within 150 nm ahead of it with seas 6 to 7 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also ahead of the front to 30W. S of the front, gentle to locally moderate NE winds prevail to the ITCZ and monsoon trough, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 23N and into the SE Bahamas, S of low pressure W of Bermuda. Associated cyclonic winds will gradually diminish over the waters N of 27N through Saturday night. Large SE to SE swell across the northeastern waters will gradually diminish and give way to large NE swell tonight through Sun night. Weak high pressure will build W-NW along 24-25N across the Bahamas and into Florida Mon through Wed. $$ Stripling