000 AXNT20 KNHC 061743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Oct 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe is centered near 30.7N 64.6W at 06/1500 UTC or 100 nm S of Bermuda, moving NNE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated near 18 ft, to the east of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also to the east of the center from 25N to 35N between 53W and 62W. On the forecast track, the system will continue passing Bermuda today and will reach the coast of Atlantic Canada or eastern New England Saturday night or Sunday. Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the central Atlantis has been repositioned based on scatterometer, low level precipitable water imagery and satellite derived winds at the 700 hPa level. The axis of the tropical wave extends from 07N to 17N with axis near 42W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 17N and between 30W and 44W. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea with axis near 67W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm east and 120 nm west of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 10N21W to 10N28W. The ITCZ extends from 10N29W to 09N35W to 09N40W then resumes near 09N44W to 08N51W to 06N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 11W and 24W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A former stationary front has transitioned to a cold front this morning and now stretches from Mississippi to near Tampico, Mexico. A scatterometer pass show moderate N to NE winds behind the front N of 24N and fresh to locally strong S of 24N and across the coastal and offshore waters of Tampico, Mexico. Seas of 4 to 6 ft follow the front. Light to gentle variable winds and slight seas are elsewhere ahead of the front. For the forecast, the cold will reach from Mobile Bay to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico late this evening, then reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Sat afternoon, and from South Florida to 21N96W to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon. High pressure and fresh to locally strong winds will follow the front through Sun evening. The front will weaken and then drift northward Mon through Wed as southerly return flow gradually develops across most of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Philippe has become post-tropical this morning and will continue to move northward away from the region, with no further impacts anticipated. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in portions of the E and central Caribbean associated with a tropical wave with axis near 67W. This convection is within 90 nm E and 120 nm W of the wave axis, affecting mainly the Mona Passage and the E Dominican Republic adjacent waters. Moderate SE winds and seas to 6 ft are to the E of the wave axis in the E Caribbean. Ahead of the wave and in the remainder Caribbean, light to gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Expect light to gentle winds elsewhere. Showers associated with the tropical wave will persist through tonight. Moderate easterly trades will return to the east and central Caribbean Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe. Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe is near 30.7N 64.6W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. For the forecast W of 65W, Philippe will become extratropical and move to 33.1N 64.9W this evening, 36.3N 66.0W Sat morning, 40.0N 66.3W Sat evening, inland to 44.9N 67.5W Sun morning, inland to 49.1N 70.9W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Weak high pressure will build across the area in the wake of Philippe. $$ Ramos