000 AXNT20 KNHC 061051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Oct 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 29.5N 65.3W at 5 AM EDT, moving north-northeast at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Peak seas are estimated near 15 ft, to the east of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is 120 to 300 nm to the east of the center. Philippe is expected to maintain this general motion through Saturday night, when it is expected to become post-tropical. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near or across Bermuda this afternoon and evening, and then move inland across New England and Atlantic Canada on Sunday. Some slight strengthening is possible Saturday night as the post- tropical transition occurs. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 41W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 15N and between 30W and 43W. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea and is near 64W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 15.5N to the coast of Venezuela, between 62W and 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 16.5N16.5W and continues southwestward to 11.5N24W and 07.5N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N44W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 11N E of 22W to the coast of Africa, and within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 44W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate N to NE winds follow a cold front that has stalled from southeast Louisiana to just south of Brownsville, Texas. Scattered moderate convection remains active along the front, while scattered patches of moderate convection aloft are seen behind the front. The moderate northeasterly winds have generated seas of 4-6 ft W of the front and S of 28N, per recent buoy observations and altimeter data. Scattered moderate convection is along across the middle Mexican coastal waters within 120 nm of the coast. Elsewhere, mostly light to gentle breezes are noted. Combined seas are 2 to 4 ft SE of the front. For the forecast, the stationary front is expected to be overtaken by a new reinforcing front currently entering North Texas, that will move into the NW Gulf this afternoon. The new merged fronts will reach from Mobile Bay to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico late this evening, then reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Sat afternoon, and from South Florida to 21N96W to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon. High pressure and fresh to locally strong winds will follow the front through Sun evening, with peak seas across W and NW portions building 8-10 ft. The front will weaken and then drift northward Mon through Wed as southerly return flow gradually develops across most of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms S of 15.5N accompany the tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean along 64W. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are noted across the far eastern Caribbean to the E of the wave axis, with seas 4 to 6 ft. Easterly swell from the Atlantic is likely moving through the larger Caribbean passages in this area as well. Light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere, due to a relatively weak ridging north of the area. Broken bands of moderate convection extend from the E and W ends of Hispaniola, SW across the basin to Colombia, and are trailing convergence lines extending into the SE side of Philippe. For the forecast, Philippe will continue moving north-northeast and cross near Bermuda this afternoon and evening. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Expect light to gentle winds elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from trailing outer rainbands of Philippe, and a tropical wave along 64W, are impacting the eastern and central Caribbean this morning and will persist through tonight. Moderate easterly trades will return to the east and central Caribbean Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Philippe. A cold front enters the central tropical Atlantic near 31N33W and continues southwestward to 25N48W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary, with southwesterly fresh to locally strong winds. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are present behind the front, along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic between the front and Philippe. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found south of 20N and west of 45W. Seas in this region are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 4-6 ft seas are occurring in the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. An deep layered upper low is across western portions between Philippe and Florida, centered near 28N73.5W, and currently producing tranquil weather over the waters S of 31N and W of 74W. For the forecast, Philippe will continue a north-northeast motion and cross near Bermuda this afternoon and evening, then is expected to become a post- tropical cyclone Saturday afternoon. Weak high pressure will build across the area in the wake of Philippe. Look for seas to diminish to the N of 28N Sat afternoon and evening as swell from Philippe fades across the regional waters. $$ Stripling