000 AXNT20 KNHC 052233 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Oct 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 27.0N 66.2W at 05/2100 UTC or 330 nm SSW of Bermuda, moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are presently around 17 ft, mainly to the east of the center. A broad mid to upper trough is west Philippe, shearing the system and bringing dry air into the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 75 to 150 nm to the northeast of the center. Philippe is expected to maintain a general northward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue through late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near or just west of Bermuda on Friday, and then reach the coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two. Some strengthening is possible Friday night or Saturday, but Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday as it approaches Atlantic Canada and eastern New England. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 09N and between 36W and 42W. A tropical wave is across the Lesser Antilles along 61W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N and between 59W and 63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 08N40W and 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N45W to 08N50W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 09N and between 29W and 33W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate northerly winds follow a cold front extending from near the Sabine Pass to just south of Corpus Christi, Texas. A few showers are active south of the cold front southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande. Mostly light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary, then will be reinforced by Fri evening, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to near Brownsville, Texas. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the front, forecast to reach from N Florida to the central Gulf near 25N90W to near Veracruz, Mexico by Sat afternoon, and from South Florida to 22N90W to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon. High pressure will follow the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany the tropical wave moving across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are noted across the far eastern Caribbean. Easterly swell from the Atlantic may be breaching some of the passages in this area as well. Light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere, due to a relatively weak ridging north of the area. For the forecast, light to gentle trade winds will be over the basin through the next few days, except for moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds in the eastern Caribbean through at least Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from trailing outer rainbands of Philippe combined with a tropical wave, with axis along 61W, are impacting the eastern Caribbean, including the Lesser Antilles. This convective activity is forecast to persist tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Philippe. A cold front enters the central tropical Atlantic near 31N36W and continues southwestward to 27N47W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are present behind the front, along with seas of 4-7 ft. The remainder of the discussion is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found south of 20N and west of 40W. Seas in this region are 5-8 ft. Similar winds and seas are also occurring in the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Philippe will move to 29.2N 65.8W Fri morning, and will be N of the forecast area near 32.5N 65.7W Fri afternoon. Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Weak high pressure will build across the area in the wake of Philippe. $$ Christensen