000 AXNT20 KNHC 051759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Oct 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1755 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is near 26.2N 66.2W at 2 PM EDT, and is moving north at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Peak seas are presently around 17 ft, mainly to the east of the center. Philippe remains a sheared tropical cyclone with most of the convection over the eastern and northern quadrants. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen north of 20N and between 60W and 67W, and also north of 28N and between 67W and 72W. Philippe is expected to maintain a general northward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue through late Saturday. A turn toward the north-northwest is possible Saturday night or early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near or just west of Bermuda on Friday, and then reach the coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two. Some strengthening is possible Friday night or Saturday, but Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday as it approaches Atlantic Canada and eastern New England. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 11N and between 33W and 38W. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. It has its axis along 59W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N and between 55W and 63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N17W and continues southwestward to 09N30W and 06N45W. The ITCZ extends from 06N45W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 13N and between 20W and 33W. Similar convection is seen from 04N to 10N and between 39W and 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front moving into the northwest Gulf of Mexico as of 1500 UTC, producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are already affecting the nearshore waters in the area. The remainder of the Gulf is under a weak high pressure pattern that maintains generally dry weather conditions. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the Gulf waters, except for stronger winds near the storm activity in the NW Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure continues to dominate the Gulf waters supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds over just about the entire basin. As the gradient slackens later today, this will allow for these winds to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds. Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. A pretty robust cold front for the early autumn season is expected to move across the northern Gulf Fri into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergent flow aloft in the central Caribbean Sea associated with a broad upper level trough over the SW tropical Atlantic and tropical moisture result in scattered showers between Hispaniola and Colombia. Farther east, an aforementioned tropical wave is bringing some showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Windward Islands. Sinking air over the NW Caribbean is suppressing the development of deep convection in the region. The weak pressure pattern found across the Caribbean sustains mainly light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft in the eastern Caribbean and slight seas elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 25.6N 66.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Philippe will move to 27.7N 66.4W this evening, 30.9N 66.3W Fri morning, and will b N of the forecast region near 34.2N 66.6W on Fri evening. Light to gentle trade winds will be over the basin through the next few days, except for moderate to locally fresh southerly winds in the eastern Caribbean today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from trailing outer rainbands of Philippe combined with a tropical wave with axis along 60W are impacting the eastern Caribbean, including the Lesser Antilles. This convective activity is forecast to persist today and tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Philippe. A cold front enters the central tropical Atlantic near 31N37W and continues southwestward to 27N44W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are present behind the front, along with seas of 4-7 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found south of 20N and west of 40W. Seas in this region are 5-8 ft. Similar winds and seas are also occurring in the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 25.6N 66.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Philippe will move to 27.7N 66.4W this evening, 30.9N 66.3W Fri morning, and will be N of the forecast region near 34.2N 66.6W by Fri evening. Philippe is expected to become a post- tropical cyclone on Saturday. Weak high pressure will build across the area in the wake of Philippe. $$ DELGADO