000 AXNT20 KNHC 031735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Oct 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 18.9N 63.9W at 03/1500 UTC or 60 nm NW of Anguilla, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Satellite imagery continues to show Philippe having an exposed center with moderate to strong wind shear impacting the system. As a result, the convection stretches across the far eastern Caribbean and is impacting most of the Lesser Antilles. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from the US Virgin Islands to northern Venezuela - from 11N to 19N between 59W and 66W. Meanwhile, the peak seas are near 20 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 210 nm NE quadrant, 150 nm SE quadrant, 120 nm NW quadrant and 30 nm SW quadrant. Philippe is expected to turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward motion late Wednesday through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass just north of the British Virgin Islands today and then move away from the northern Leeward Islands beginning tonight. However, the strongest winds and heaviest rains will likely occur in the islands to the southeast of the center. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Philippe could begin to strengthen a bit late this week. Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 24W from 13N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to scattered strong convection is noted along the wave and the monsoon trough from 06N to 13N between 22W and 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 51W from 17N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis from 05N to 19N between 49W and 53W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 04N35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough and tropical wave mentioned above from 03N to 14N between 35W and the coast of Africa. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure continues to build over the Gulf of Mexico. In the eastern Gulf, a cold front is noted to the far SE basin and into the Straits of Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are along and south of the boundary. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted north of the front across the eastern Gulf. A trough is along the Texas coastline with moderate to locally fresh SE winds on the right side of the trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from the SE Texas coast southward toward the central Gulf near 24N and W of 90W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the basin. Seas range 5 to 7 ft across the northern and central Gulf with seas to 4 ft in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate by late this afternoon. High pressure will follow the front supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds, mainly over the eastern Gulf, through tonight before winds start to diminish. Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. A cold front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Fri night into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Philippe. Outside of Philippe's influence, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the lee of Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the SW Caribbean along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of 13N between 75W and 83W. Light to gentle winds are noted across the central and western Caribbean with fresh or higher winds in the eastern Caribbean associated with Philippe. Swells continue to impact the NE Caribbean due to Philippe, with seas to 8 ft SW of the northern Leeward Islands - in the far NE Caribbean region. Otherwise, slight seas are noted across the rest of the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.9N 63.9W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Philippe will move to 19.8N 64.4W this evening, 21.2N 65.0W Wed morning, 22.9N 65.4W Wed evening, 24.8N 65.6W Thu morning, 27.3N 65.2W Thu evening, and 30.1N 64.4W Fri morning. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Philippe will start to subside on Wed. Light to gentle trades will be over the basin through the next few days, except for moderate to fresh southerly winds in the eastern Caribbean through early Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Philippe. A cold front continues to press eastward across the western Atlantic, extending from 31N58W to the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Two areas of convection are associated with this front. The first is scattered moderate convection noted across the Bahamas and along the northern coast of Cuba, S of 25N and W of 70W. Another line of showers and thunderstorms is moving along and east of the front from 21N to 31N between 54W and 66W. Moderate to fresh NE winds continue off the east coast of Florida and the northern Bahamas. Otherwise, light to gentle ENE winds are north of the front. Seas range 7 to 10 ft north of the front, including off the coast of Florida. In the central Atlantic, high pressure continues to extend across the portion of this basin with light to gentle winds. Between the high pressure and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh ENE winds are noted. In the eastern Atlantic, a trough extends south of a 1018 mb low pressure near 31N28W to 27N26W. Otherwise, high pressure extends across this area of the basin with scattered showers off the NW African coast. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted off the coasts of Morocco, Mauritania and the Canary Islands. Seas range 4 to 7 ft across the central and eastern Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.9N 63.9W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Philippe will move to 19.8N 64.4W this evening, 21.2N 65.0W Wed morning, 22.9N 65.4W Wed evening, 24.8N 65.6W Thu morning, 27.3N 65.2W Thu evening, and 30.1N 64.4W Fri morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves N of the area to near 35.5N 63.3W early Sat. Otherwise, a cold front extends from 31N56W to 24N80W. N of 29N, the cold front will continue progressing eastward until moving east of the forecast waters on Wed. S of 29N, the frontal boundary will dissipate late this afternoon, but fresh to strong northeast winds will continue north of the Bahamas through Wed before diminishing. $$ AReinhart