000 AXNT20 KNHC 021737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 17.1N 60.7W at 02/1500 UTC or 70 nm ESE of Barbuda, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Philippe continues to remain under northwesterly wind shear. As a result, a large area of numerous strong convection is noted south of the center from 10N to 17N between 56W and 62W. Peak seas near Philippe are 20 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 150 nm in the NW quadrant, 130 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the SE quadrant, and 60 nm in the SW quadrant. Philippe is expected to move northwestward later today through early Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast to occur by late Tuesday, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands tonight. Note that the strongest winds and heavy rains will likely occur after the center passes. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extended along 43W from 18N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 40W and 44W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 11N16W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 12W to 29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, extending from Ft. Myers, Florida to 25N88W. The tail end of the stationary front is weakening across the western and central Gulf of Mexico as mid-level high pressure builds across this area. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the basin within 100 nm of the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, a trough extends along the western Bay of Campeche from 25N97W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the trough from 18N to 24N between 93W and 97W. The latest ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh ENE winds north of the stationary front. Seas range 4 to 7 ft. South of the front, light to gentle winds are noted with seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front over the central Gulf will dissipate on Tue. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will expand southward from the N waters to the central basin through Tue night before winds start to diminish. Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level cyclonic wind flow is noted in the central Caribbean. This is giving way to scattered thunderstorms across the NW basin, especially near the coast of Cuba, Hispaniola, and the Gulf of Honduras. Deeper convection is noted in the SW Caribbean along the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of 12N between 75W and 84W. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted off the NE Venezuela coast. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin with moderate winds in the Lee of the Greater Antilles. Seas are to 4 ft across the Caribbean, confirmed by buoys around the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.1N 60.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Philippe will move to 17.8N 61.5W this evening, 18.9N 62.0W Tue morning, 20.2N 62.4W Tue evening, 21.8N 62.7W Wed morning, 23.5N 62.8W Wed evening, and 25.3N 62.9W Thu morning. Philippe will strengthen to a hurricane near 29.2N 61.5W early Fri. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside on Wed. Light to gentle trades will be over the basin through the next few days, except for moderate to fresh SE winds developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Philippe. In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends into the area near 30N61W to 27N70W where the front stalls from that point to West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted off the South Florida coast and across the Bahamas from 22N to 27N between 74W and 80W. Showers are also noted within 50 nm of the cold front. The latest ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh NE winds north of the frontal boundary with seas 7 to 12 ft. South of the frontal boundary, ASCAT shows moderate SW winds N of 28N and E of 64W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds with seas to 6 ft are noted N of 23N and W of 55W outside of Philippe's influence. In the central Atlantic, the remnant low of Rina is located near 29N55W with a central pressure of 1011 mb. Thunderstorms are pulsing near this low with numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 25N to 31N between 50W to 56W. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring on the east side of the low with seas 8 to 10 ft. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are noted along the southern periphery of the ridging and N of the ITCZ. Under the influence of the high pressure, winds are light to gentle. Seas are 8 to 9 ft near the fresh winds, with 6 to 7 ft seas elsewhere in the central Atlantic. In the eastern Atlantic, high pressure extends across most of the area. A trough stretches south of a low pressure near 33N25W with a central pressure of 1018 mb to 25N34W. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted along and within 120 nm west of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds are noted along the southern periphery of the surface high pressure to the coast of Africa. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere in the eastern basin. Seas are 5 to 8 ft, with 4 ft seas near the Canary Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.1N 60.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Philippe will move to 17.8N 61.5W this evening, 18.9N 62.0W Tue morning, 20.2N 62.4W Tue evening, 21.8N 62.7W Wed morning, 23.5N 62.8W Wed evening, and 25.3N 62.9W Thu morning. Philippe will strengthen to a hurricane over near 29.2N 61.5W early Fri. Elsewhere, a cold front extends from near Bermuda west-southwestward and becomes stationary over the N Bahamas. North of 29N, the weak cold front will continue progressing eastward until moving east of our waters on Wed. South of 29N, the frontal boundary will dissipate on Tue, but fresh to strong NE winds will continue north of the Bahamas through Wed before diminishing. $$ AReinhart