000 AXNT20 KNHC 011104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Oct 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 16.4N 58.2W at 01/0900 UTC or 180 nm E of Guadeloupe, moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 21 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 11N to 17.5N between 50W and 58W. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to begin today and continue into tonight. A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday and Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Some strengthening is possible by late Monday as Philippe begins to move north of the Leeward Islands. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 24.3N 53.7W at 01/0900 UTC or 640 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 16 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 20N to 25N between 48W and 54W. On the forecast track, a turn toward the north and then north-northeast is expected tonight and Monday. Weakening is forecast during the day or so. Rina is expected to become a remnant low later today or tonight, and dissipate by early Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35W, from 05N to 20N, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convecion is from 13N to 21N between 33W and 44W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plans of Guinea- Bissau to 12N16W to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 05N32W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 10W and 15W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the NE waters from just south of Cedar Key to New Orleans. Moderate to fresh winds are north of the front. Fresh E winds are just N of the front or N of 27N all the way to Texas adjacent waters. Moderate seas to 5 ft are ongoing in this area of fresh winds. Otherwise, a surface trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting showers and tstms in the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will start to drift southward as a cold front later today then dissipate Mon. As the front shifts southward, the fresh winds, with locally strong winds, will expand southward to the central basin through Wed before winds start to diminish. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are forecast elsewhere. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.4N 58.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Moderate winds are ongoing in the central Caribbean while mainly light to gentle winds prevail elesewhere along with slight seas. Moderate seas are across the Leeward Islands Atlantic passages due to proximity of Philippe. For the forecast, Philippe will move to 16.9N 58.9W this afternoon, 17.6N 59.8W Mon morning, 18.4N 60.8W Mon afternoon, 19.2N 61.3W Tue morning, 20.4N 61.8W Tue afternoon, and 21.9N 62.0W Wed morning. Philippe will strengthen to a hurricane near 25.5N 61.6W early Thu. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside by the middle of next week. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through today. Light to gentle winds are forecast in the Caribbean Mon through Thu, except moderate to fresh trades developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina. Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.4N 58.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. A stationary front extends from 31N70W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Another stationary front extends from 31N30W to 29N40W to 31N50W. Surface ridging dominate the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters, providing gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas to the west and east of both Rina and Philippe. For the forecast W of 65W, Philippe will move to 16.9N 58.9W this afternoon, 17.6N 59.8W Mon morning, 18.4N 60.8W Mon afternoon, 19.2N 61.3W Tue morning, 20.4N 61.8W Tue afternoon, and 21.9N 62.0W Wed morning. Philippe will strengthen to a hurricane near 25.5N 61.6W early Thu. Rough seas generated from Philippe will impact the waters E of 65W through at least the middle of next week. The stationary front N of the Bahamas will start to shift south and east as a cold front, with fresh to locally strong winds north of the front through Wed. $$ Ramos