000 AXNT20 KNHC 302319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 16.3N 56.5W at 30/2100 UTC or 400 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving SW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 11N to 19N between 49W and 59W. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday and Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Philippe could become a hurricane early next week. Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 22.6N 51.5W at 30/2100 UTC or 700 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate convection from 19N to 22N between 45W and 51W. The cyclone is expected to continue moving northwestward through Sunday before turning northward on Monday. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Rina is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday, then dissipate early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe and Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 33W, from 03N to 20N, moving westward 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 15N between 29W and 38W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 17N16W to 10N35W. The ITCZ continues from 10N35W to 11N51W. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 14W between 20W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to New Orleans. A surface trough extends from 26N81W to 24N84W. Scattered moderate convection prevails near these features across the Florida peninsula and the southern half of the basin mainly S of 25N. Another trough extends across the Bay of Campeche with scattered moderate convection reaching the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are depicted in the northern offshore waters N of 27N in association to the aforementioned front, with seas 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail in the remaining basin along with seas 2-4 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front will start to drift southward as a cold front later this weekend then dissipate early next week. As the front shifts southward, the fresh winds, with locally strong winds, will expand southward to the central basin later this weekend to the middle of next week before winds start to diminish. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are forecast elsewhere. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Manly moderate trades winds prevail in the central and northeastern Caribbean, with seas 3-5 ft. Otherwise, gentle trade winds, with seas 1-3 ft are elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to 16.2N 56.7W Sun morning, 16.6N 57.4W Sun afternoon, 17.4N 58.1W Mon morning, 18.5N 58.9W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.9N 59.5W Tue morning, and 21.6N 59.7W Tue afternoon. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.7N 59.0W Wed afternoon. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside by the middle of next week. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the weekend. Light to gentle winds are forecast in the Caribbean Mon through Thu, except moderate to fresh trades developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina. In addition, please refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the tropical Atlantic. A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to 29N81W. A surface trough extends from 30N73W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near these boundaries mainly W of 70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds follow the front along with moderate seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail across and N of Cuba and Hispaniola in association to an upper-level trough. To the E, a stationary front extends across the north-central Atlantic from 31N33W to 28N46W to 31N57W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are N of this boundary along with seas up to 8 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas 3-6 ft will prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to 16.2N 56.7W Sun morning, 16.6N 57.4W Sun afternoon, 17.4N 58.1W Mon morning, 18.5N 58.9W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.9N 59.5W Tue morning, and 21.6N 59.7W Tue afternoon. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.7N 59.0W Wed afternoon. Rough seas generated from Philippe will impact the waters E of 65W through at least the middle of next week. A stationary front off the coast of northern Florida will start to shift south and east as a cold front, with fresh to locally strong winds north of the front later this weekend into early next week. $$ ERA