000 AXNT20 KNHC 291047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Sep 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 18.5N 55.2W at 29/0900 UTC or 450 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving SW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 14 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 14N to 20N between 48W and 58W. Philippe is forecast to continue to move southwest through Saturday night. A gradual turn toward the west and northwest is forecast Sunday and Sunday night. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, but some strengthening is possible over the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 18.9N 46.6W at 29/0900 UTC or 940 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 16 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 14N to 21N between 40W and 47W. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion, with a slight increase in forward speed, is expected for the next few days. Slight strengthening is forecast later today, followed by little change in intensity through Saturday. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 22W, from 05N to 19N, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 17W and 25W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 11N15W, to 09N22W to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W to 04N43W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between 25W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Tampa Bay NW to New Orleans. Surface ridging over the SE CONUS just N of the front is tightening slightly the pressue gradient, thus supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds along the northern gulf waters N of 27N. This front is also supporting scattered showers in the NE gulf. Light to gentle variable wind and slight seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue across the northern Gulf offshore waters N of 26N with moderate seas through the forecast period, expanding to the central basin Sun night into Tue. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are forecast elsewhere through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.5N 55.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving southwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. A weak pressure gradient in the Caribbean is supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the central Gulf and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Seas are slight basin- wide. For the forecast, Philippe will move to 18.3N 55.4W this afternoon, 17.9N 55.7W Sat morning, 17.4N 56.0W Sat afternoon, 17.1N 56.4W Sun morning, 17.1N 56.8W Sun afternoon, and 17.6N 57.2W Mon morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves near 20.0N 57.9W early Tue. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside toward the end of the week south of 17N, but will continue 8 to 12 ft north of 17N into the weekend. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina. Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.5N 55.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving southwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Gentle to moderate east and southeast winds and moderate seas dominate the subtropical waters west and east of the tropical cyclones. For the forecast W of 55W, Philippe will move to 18.3N 55.4W this afternoon, 17.9N 55.7W Sat morning, 17.4N 56.0W Sat afternoon, 17.1N 56.4W Sun morning, 17.1N 56.8W Sun afternoon, and 17.6N 57.2W Mon morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves near 20.0N 57.9W early Tue. Rough seas ahead of the storm will continue to spread east of 68W through the end of the week. $$ Ramos