000 AXNT20 KNHC 241801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Sep 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Philippe, at 24/1500 UTC, is near 16.2N 41.7W, at 24/1500 UTC. Philippe is moving toward the west, or 280 DEGREES, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 80 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 80 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Sea heights that are 12 feet or higher are: 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 18 feet. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 200 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Fresh winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 12N to 27N between 35W and 48W. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Tropical Storm Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 09N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 420 nm of the low pressure center in the southern semicircle, and within 360 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. The environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development. It is possible that a tropical depression may form around midweek. This weather system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is along the 25W tropical wave, to 08N31W and 11N36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 14W and 20W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to 260 nm on either side of 09N44W 09N52W 12N57W 17N62W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough, and cyclonic wind flow at many levels of the atmosphere, continue to cover eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, and into the part of the Caribbean Sea that is from 15N northward from 80W westward. A surface trough curves from northern Colombia, toward the eastern coast of Honduras, through the Yucatan Peninsula, to 26N86W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 20N to 27N from 87W eastward. Isolated moderate is from 27N northward from 87W eastward. Slight seas, and moderate or slower wind speeds, cover the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough over the southeast Gulf accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms will drift slowly into the western Gulf through the early part of the week and dissipate. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will persist over the north-central and northeast Gulf. This pattern will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas across the basin through the middle of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A deep layer trough, and cyclonic wind flow at many levels of the atmosphere, continue to cover eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, and into the part of the Caribbean Sea that is from 15N northward from 80W westward. A surface trough curves from northern Colombia, toward the eastern coast of Honduras, through the Yucatan Peninsula, to 26N86W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 12N southward between the trough and 80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from the Windward Passage westward. Moderate to gentle winds are on the NE side of the surface trough. Gentle winds are on the SW side of the trough. Moderate seas are from 17N southward from the Windward Passage eastward. Slight seas are elsewhere. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are within 240 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between 67W and 72W. Fresh to moderate easterly winds are elsewhere from the Windward Passage eastward. The monsoon trough is along 07N75W in Colombia, beyond 08N85W, continuing into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 80W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 24/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN, are: 2.95 in Freeport in the Bahamas; 0.68 in Guadeloupe; and 0.40 in Trinidad; 0.13 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; and 0.11 in Kingston in Jamaica. High pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean through the early part of the week, with fresh to strong pulses off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia during mainly the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will build in mixed NE and E swell across the waters east of the Leeward Islands starting Mon, ahead of Tropical Storm Philippe. Philippe is expected to turn NW before reaching 55W, and move into the central Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Philippe. A surface trough is along 31N75W to 24N81W in the Straits of Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward from 70W westward. A surface trough is along 26N56W 18N61W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N to 28N between 50W and 62W. Rough seas have been near this surface trough. A surface trough is along 31N25W 29N33W 27N41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 90 nm on either side of the surface trough, and elsewhere from 24N northward between 20W and 42W. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean, away from T.S. Philippe. Fresh NE winds are from 13N to 25N from 35W eastward; and from 12N to 28N between 50W and 60W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from the Greater Antilles northward between 60W and 75W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.2N 41.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Philippe will move to 16.5N 43.3W this evening, 16.9N 45.6W Mon morning, 17.4N 47.8W Mon evening, 18.0N 49.7W Tue morning, 18.9N 51.0W Tue evening, and 20.0N 52.5W Wed morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves to near 22.5N 54.5W early Thu. Seas will build in mixed NE and E swell across the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands starting Mon, ahead of Tropical Storm Philippe. A trough over the northern Bahamas will move westward into Florida through late today. Weak high pressure will build from the north-central Atlantic north of 28N in the wake of the trough. Low pressure moving off the eastern seaboard may bring fresh NE to E winds and building seas off northeast Florida the middle of the week. $$ mt/al