000 AXNT20 KNHC 151240 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Sep 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Updated for 1200 UTC information on Special Features Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lee is centered near 35.1N 67.0W at 15/1200 UTC or 400 nm SSE of Nantucket Massachusetts, moving N at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas over the SW N Atlantic waters S of 31N are 18 ft, but seas are higher N of this area, up to 45 ft per the NWS Ocean Prediction Center. Scattered moderate convection is from 34N to 44N between 60W and 73W. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will continue to move farther away from Bermuda this morning and approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada today and Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Lee is forecast to become post-tropical and begin weakening by Saturday, but it is still expected to be a large and dangerous storm when it reaches eastern New England and Atlantic Canada. Tropical Storm Margot is centered near 36.7N 38.6W at 15/0900 UTC or 560 nm W of the Azores, moving ESE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 35N to 40N between 21W and 40W. Margot is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two. Then, a faster northeastward motion is forecast by Monday. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lee and Margot NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. AL97 Gale Warning...Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a broad low pressure area located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across the central tropical Atlantic. A gale warning has been issued, starting this afternoon. Current peak seas based on earlier altimeter data are 10 to 11 ft. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N17W to 13N35W to 13N52W. Aside from the convection associated with AL97, scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 11N between 20W and 36W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient is across the Gulf of Mexico supporting light to gentle variable winds and slight seas basin-wide, except for moderate NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, weak surface ridging across the northern Gulf will dominate the basin throughout Tue, supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds N of 24N and moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche off the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the western Yucatan and eastern Bay of Campeche each late afternoon and evening through the period. Otherwise, slight seas are forecast basin-wide through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean along with slight seas. Light to gentle variable winds are across the remainder basin. Otherwise, moderate seas associated with the passage of Hurricane Lee through the SW N Atlantic waters is still supporting moderate seas in the NE Caribbean passages. For the forecast, large swell affecting the NE Caribbean Passages will gradually decrease by this evening, however moderate seas are forecast to prevail through the middle of next week due to a possible tropical cyclone that will move NE of the area Tue and Wed. Otherwise, moderate trade winds will dominate the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Tue. Gentle to locally moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane Lee, Hurricane Margot, and Invest AL97. Hurricane Lee is N of the area near 34.4N 67.5W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving north at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Swell with seas to 18 ft are affecting the SW N Atlc waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are elsewhere across the subtropical Atlc waters E of 50W. For the forecast W of 55W, Lee will move to 36.8N 67.0W this afternoon, 40.3N 66.7W Sat morning, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 43.4N 66.4W Sat afternoon, inland to 46.3N 64.8W Sun morning, 49.3N 61.1W Sun afternoon, and 52.2N 55.0W Mon morning. Lee will dissipate early Tue. Long-period swell generated by Lee is expected to impact the waters north and east of the Bahamas through Sun morning. High pressure will build briefly across the area Sun into Mon. Low pressure across the central Atlantic, AL97, is expected to approach the ENE part of the area Mon, possibly as a tropical cyclone, and track northwestward over that same area through Wed leading to a significant increase in winds and seas. $$ Ramos/JRL