000 AXNT20 KNHC 130607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Sep 13 2023 CORRECTION Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. The center of Category Three Major Hurricane Lee, at 13/0600 UTC, is near 25.4N 66.9W. The hazards for land are: wind, surf, and rainfall. LEE is moving toward the NW, or 320 degrees, 06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 100 knots with gusts to 120 knots. Hurricane- force winds are: within 110 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 100 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 70 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm- force winds are: within 210 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 200 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 170 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 360 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 390 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 300 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 375 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 42 feet. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 23N to 26N between 65W and 68W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from the southern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico northward between 58W and 72W. The center of Hurricane Margot, at 13/0300 UTC, is near 32.7N 39.7W. Margot is moving toward the N, or 350 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots. Hurricane-force winds are: within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 70 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 230 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 160 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 270 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 280 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 300 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 240 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 32 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 31N to 34N between 38W and 42W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 29N to 37N between 35W and 45W. ...in the Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean (AL97 and AL98)... A tropical wave is along 24W/25W, from 18N southward. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 13N. A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 12N32W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to 20N between 20W and 42W. This system is expected to blend into one. The 1010 mb low pressure center is expected to become dominant during the next day or two. Gradual development of the low pressure center is expected after the weather features combine. It is likely for a tropical depression to form by this weekend. The movement will be toward the west-northwest or northwest about 15 mph, in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of this feature developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... No other tropical waves are in the Atlantic Ocean, nor in the Caribbean Sea, at this moment. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to the INVEST AL98 low pressure center, to the INVEST AL97 low pressure center, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 15N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 mb high pressure center is near 27N92W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. An inland frontal boundary passes through southern Mississippi, to Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf coast, beyond the Texas Big Bend. Any significant precipitation is inland. The GFS model for 500 mb shows that a trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N southward between the Yucatan Channel to 95W. Isolated moderate is in the coastal waters of the Florida Gulf coast. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet. The wind speeds are gentle or slower. A weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters throughout the forecast period supporting mainly light to gentle winds. Moderate return flow will develop across the W and SW Gulf Thu night. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the western Yucatan and eastern Bay of Campeche each late afternoon and evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface cyclonic wind flow is from 18N northward from 72W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related to Hurricane Lee. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 18N to 20N from the Dominican Republic eastward. Mostly moderate NE winds are from 24N in the Gulf of Mexico southward from 80W westward. Fresh to strong southerly winds are possible from the NE Caribbean Sea islands northward. Moderate southerly winds are elsewhere from 70W eastward. Broad moderate cyclonic wind flow is from 15N southward between 67W and 77W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are: mostly from 3 feet to 4 feet from 80W eastward, except for 2 feet in the coastal waters of Venezuela along 70W, and to the south of Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba; 3 feet from 20N northward from 80W westward; from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere from 80W westward. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 73W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from the Windward Passage westward. Most of this precipitation is in the broad surface easterly wind flow. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 13/0000 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN, are: 0.31 in Guadeloupe. Hurricane Lee is well N of Puerto Rico, near 25.3N 66.7W at 11 PM EDT, moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Lee will gradually begin to move northward tonight through Wed and farther away from Caribbean waters. Large N swell across the adjacent Atlantic will gradually become NNW tonight through Thu, moving through the Caribbean Passages and into the Caribbean waters between the Leeward Islands and the Mona Passage. Seas across these Caribbean Passages and waters will diminish significantly Thu through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will return to the Caribbean Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane Lee, Hurricane Margot, the INVEST AL97, and the INVEST AL98. Moderate to fresh NE-to-E winds are from 40W eastward from 14N to the line 31N20W 23N40W; and from 26N northward between the two hurricanes. Gentle winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights are from 8 feet and higher from 21N northward between 30W and 50W. Hurricane Lee is affecting the sea heights from 60W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Lee is near 25.3N 66.7W at 11 PM EDT, moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Lee will begin to turn northward tonight through Wed, reaching near 26.1N 67.2W Wed morning, near 27.7N 67.8W Wed evening, near 29.7N 68.2W Thu morning, near 32.1N 67.9W Thu evening, and continue moving northward and pass W of Bermuda Thu night through Fri. Large swell from Lee will propagate in all directions and dominate the regional waters W of 55W through Fri. $$ mt