000 AXNT20 KNHC 090003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Sep 09 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Lee is centered near 18.9N 55.5W at 08/2100 UTC or 430 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Peak seas are 43 ft, with the 12 ft sea radii extending as far 240 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Latest satellite imagery shows that the eye of Lee has become cloud filled. Banding features are not currently well defined. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center in the NE and SW quadrant, 100 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and to northeast and east of the center from 17N to 21N between 52W-54.5W, and within 30 nm of a line from 16N58W to 16N56W. Lee is forecast to maintain its current motion continue through early next week with a significant decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early next week. Lee is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days, however Lee is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane through early next week. Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, and will reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sun and Mon. Tropical Storm Margot is over the eastern Atlantic centered near 18.8N 34.3W at 08/2100 UTC or 610 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas of 12 ft are extend outward from the center for up to 45 nm in the NE quadrant. Latest satellite imagery shows that Margot remains a disorganized tropical storm as its center is partially exposed to the southwest of the deep convection. This convection consists of the numerous moderate to strong type intensity underneath a cold overcast that is within 90 nm in the N quadrant and 60 nm in the NE quadrant of the system. Scattered moderate convection is east of Margot from 18N to 21N between 30W-33W. Margot is forecast to maintain its present motion for the next day or so, followed by a decrease in forward motion and a turn northwestward, then northward early next week. Some gradual strengthening is forecast the next several days, with Margot forecast to become a hurricane early next week. Peak seas are expected to reach 20-25 ft in a couple of days near the center of Margot. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Lee and Margot at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from 04N to 18N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from 12N-15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from Senegal near 13N16W and extends westward to 13N23W. It resumes south-southwest of Lee near 11N33W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 07N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 18W-23W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A trough extends from east-central Florida to near Tampa. Meanwhile. a cold front has recently pushed southward into the far northern waters along 30N and between Apalachicola and southeastern Louisiana. Weak high pressure anchored by a 1015 mb high center near 28N94W is over the rest of the basin. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen north of 28N between 90W-93W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the eastern Gulf from 26N to 29N and between 82W-88W. The weak gradient present over the area is allowing for generally light to gentle over the basin, except for moderate northeast to east winds from 22N to 26N west of 87W and over Bay of Campeche. Seas are rather low throughout 1-3 ft. Winds and seas may be higher in and near shower and thunderstorm activity. Foe the forecast, the weak pressure that is in place will dominate the Gulf waters throughout the forecast period supporting only light to moderate winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is allowing for only moderate to fresh trade winds across the central part of the sea basin with trade wind present elsewhere. The exception is in the southwestern part of the sea where higher trade winds of strong speeds are south of 13N between 72W-76W. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central Caribbean, except for slighter higher seas of 5-7 ft south of 13N between 72W-76W and lower seas of 3-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Large easterly swell over the tropical Atlantic waters will reach the passages of the NE Caribbean early Sat, the Anegada Passage by midday Sat, and the Mona Passage Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on Major Hurricane Lee and on Tropical Storm Margot. In addition to the two tropical cyclones, a persistent trough extends from near 31N68W to 26N74W and to the central Bahamas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted from 27N to 30.5N between 68W-72W and from 24N to 27N between 74W-78W. Clusters of scattered moderate are south of 23N between 75W-78W. A rather expansive Bermuda/Azores High is centered well north of our waters with ridging extending to the Georgia border to the west and to near 28N20W to the east. South of the ridge axis trades winds are generally gentle to moderate away from the tropical cyclones. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 70W, and 4-8 ft east of 70W outside from the two systems. For the forecast W of 55W, powerful and major Hurricane Lee is near 18.9N 55.5W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west- northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Lee will move to 19.7N 56.9W Sat morning, 20.6N 58.6W Sat afternoon, 21.3N 60.0W Sun morning, 21.9N 61.3W Sun afternoon, 22.5N 62.5W Mon morning, and 23.0N 63.7W Mon afternoon. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.7N 66.0W Tue afternoon. Large swell from Hurricane Lee will begin to impact the Anegada Passage and adjacent waters Sat morning, and reach the Mona Passage beginning early Sun morning. Beyond Mon, Lee is expected to begin to turn NW and slowly weaken $$ Aguirre