000 AXNT20 KNHC 072342 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Sep 08 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Category Four Hurricane Lee over the central tropical Atlantic is centered near 16.9N 51.3W at 07/2100 UTC or 680 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater extend outward up 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, with peak seas of 28 ft. Satellite imagery shows moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant...120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant...60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of a line that marks a band that extends from 14N51W to 15N49W. A preceding 45 nm wide band of scattered squalls and thunderstorms extends from near 25N49W to 23N52W and to 19N55W. Lee is forecast to maintain its present motion for the next several days while gradually slowing down its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of Lee will move north of the northern Leeward Islands during the next several days. Additional strengthening is expected tonight. Fluctuations in intensity are expected after that, but Lee is forecast to remain a powerful major hurricane well into next week. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sun. Please consult products from your local weather office. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Margot over the eastern Atlantic is centered near 16.8N 28.3W at 07/2100 UTC or 250 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection has increased showing signs banding around the center. This convection extends up to 90 nm north and northeast of the center. Margot is forecast to maintain its present motion for the next few days, and Margot is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lee and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Margot NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis reaches the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W. Another segment of the monsoon trough begins at 11N27W and continues to 06N31W and to 04N37W. Scattered moderate conveciton is within 180 nm w of the trough between 29W-32W, and within 60 nm southeast of the trough between 27W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough is analyzed over the central Gulf from 29N88W to 25N90W. Isolated shower and thunderstorms are noted east- southeast of the trough from 23N to 26N between 84W-90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are the Bay of Campeche, where a trough is analyzed from near 21N92W to 19N95W. Rather tranquil conditions are elsewhere over the basin as a 1016 mb high pressure center remains over the NW Gulf near 27N94W. The weak gradient is resulting in generally light and variable winds to exist along with seas of 1-3 ft. For the forecast, the weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters throughout the forecast period supporting only light to moderate winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A rather weak pressure pattern is allowing for gentle to moderate trade winds along with seas in the range of 3-6 ft over the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are the Yucatan Peninsula, western Belize, Guatemala, and eastern Cuba. Similar activity is over the interior of Hispaniola and over the northwest corner of Puerto Rico. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are confined to the far southwestern part of the sea, where the eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough reaches, roughly along 10N/11N to just inland the northwest coast of Colombia. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Lee is near 16.9N 51.3W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Lee will move to 17.6N 53.0W Fri morning, 18.7N 55.2W Fri afternoon, 19.7N 57.2W Sat morning, 20.6N 59.0W Sat afternoon, 21.3N 60.5W Sun morning, and 22.0N 61.8W Sun afternoon. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves north of Puerto Rico near 23.1N 64.3W Mon afternoon. In the Caribbean, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Large swell from Hurricane Lee will begin to impact the Anegada Passage beginning Sat afternoon and the Mona Passage beginning Sun morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Hurricane Lee and Tropical Depression Fourteen. A trough extends from near 30N64W southwest to the southeastern Bahamas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 30-60 nm of the trough axis. Farther east, the remnant low of former tropical cyclone Katia is located near 24N34W, with a pressure of 1015 mb. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm south of the low. Scattered showers are removed well to the north of the low within 30 nm of a line from 25N35W to 26N34W. A central Atlantic trough extends from near 29N43W to near 26N44W. Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the trough from 27N to 28N and north of 28N between 41W-46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line from 25N45W to 25N42W. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, Major Hurricane Lee is near 16.9N 51.3W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Lee will move to 17.6N 53.0W Fri morning, 18.7N 55.2W Fri afternoon, 19.7N 57.2W Sat morning, 20.6N 59.0W Sat afternoon, 21.3N 60.5W Sun morning, and 22.0N 61.8W Sun afternoon. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves north of Puerto Rico near 23.1N 64.3W Mon afternoon. Large swell from Hurricane Lee will begin to impact the Anegada Passage beginning Sat afternoon and the Mona Passage beginning Sun morning. $$ Aguirre