000 AXNT20 KNHC 070535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Sep 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0525 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lee is near 15.4N 47.7W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is over and within 60 nm of the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the center in the northern semicircle and within 90 nm in the SW quadrant. Lee is forecast to maintain its present motion through Friday. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the weekend. Additional strengthening is forecast, and rapid intensification is expected to begin on Thursday. Lee could become a major hurricane by early Friday. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lee NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): A tropical wave has its axis along 23W, south of 19N. A 1009 mb low is along the wave near 14N. This system is part of a broad area of low pressure that is producing an area of scattered moderate to isolated convection within about 240 nm north and northwest of the low. Seas are 6-8 ft south of 24N and east of 35W. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the disturbance moves toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph. Heavy rains and gusty winds associated with this system are now occurring over the Cabo Verde Islands, and these conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... None. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues to Invest 96L near 14N23W and to 16N35W. Aside from the convection discussed in the Special Features section, scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N and between 24W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to the northwest coast of Cuba, producing a shower or two within 90 nm of the trough axis. Similar activity is noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to storms that developed over the Yucatan peninsula in the afternoon and evening hours. A weak pressure pattern continues to dominate the basin allowing for light to gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters most of the forecast period supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds just W of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen on satellite imagery in the lee of Cuba and the Gulf of Gonave due to diurnal activity and divergence aloft. Similar activity is present within 90 nm of the coasts of SE Nicaragua and Costa Rica. No deep convection is present in the rest of the Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are evident in the north-central and eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. Hurricane Lee is near 15.4N 47.7W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Lee will move to 16.1N 49.5W Thu morning, 17.0N 51.9W Thu evening, 18.1N 54.2W Fri morning, 19.1N 56.5W Fri evening, 20.1N 58.5W Sat morning, and 20.8N 60.3W Sat evening. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.0N 63.5W by late Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Hurricane Lee and on the eastern Atlantic Invest 96L. A surface trough remains nearly stationary from 30N60W to the Windward Passage. Along with divergence aloft, isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the trough axis, affecting the SE Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. A weak pressure pattern prevail in the western tropical Atlantic, west of 55W, allowing for mainly light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. Farther east, the remnant low of former tropical cyclone Katia is located near 26N32W with a central pressure of 1013 mb. A recent burst of strong convection over the northern quadrant is seen on satellite imagery. Latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to strong winds continue in the northern and western quadrants. Seas are 6-8 ft in the area north of 22N and between 27W and 38W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Lee is near 15.4N 47.7W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Lee will move to 16.1N 49.5W Thu morning, 17.0N 51.9W Thu evening, 18.1N 54.2W Fri morning, 19.1N 56.5W Fri evening, 20.1N 58.5W Sat morning, and 20.8N 60.3W Sat evening. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.0N 63.5W by late Sun. $$ DELGADO