000 AXNT20 KNHC 070005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Sep 07 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Hurricane Lee is centered near 14.9N 46.4W at 06/2100 UTC or 980 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Satellite imagery show that Lee is organizing rather quickly. Numerous moderate to strong convection is over the center and within 60 nm of the center, except 90 nm in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the center in the northern semicircle and within 90 nm in the SW quadrant. Banding features have started to become evident during the past few hours. Lee is forecast to maintain its present motion for the next few days, with a slight reduction in forward speed over the weekend. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Lee is expected to become a major hurricane in a day or two. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lee NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): A tropical wave has its axis along 22W from 03N to 19N. A 1009 mb low is along the wave near 13N22W. This system is part of a broad area of low pressure that is producing an area of scattered moderate to isolated convection within about 240 nm north and northwest of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while moving toward the west-northwest over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The low is expected to move across the Cabo Verde Islands overnight and early on Thu, and interests there should monitor its progress. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave that was previously along 87W/88W south of 18N has moved inland Central America. This wave is being described in the eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (MIATWDEP) ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwest to the 1009 mb low near 13N22W and to 12N26W to 13N35W. Aside from convection described with Invest 96, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 25W-30W, and to the southwest of the trough within 60 nm of 11N36W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the southeastern United States dominates the Gulf waters producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A weak surface trough is over the north-central Gulf along a position from 29N89W to 26N90W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of the trough from 25N to 28N between 86W-88W and over the central Gulf from 22N to 25N west of 85W, while an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is over the southeast Gulf from 24N to 27N between 82W-85W. Latest altimeter data has seas of 1-3 ft over the basin. For the forecast, the weak surface over the north-central Gulf will continue to induce showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Otherwise, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters most of the forecast period supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds just W of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft in the south- central Caribbean, with the highest seas near the coast of Colombia. gulf moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean. Seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean. Lower seas of 1-3 ft are present elsewhere. The tail end of a central Atlantic trough extends southwest to just south of Windward Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north 17N between 75W-77W. A tropical wave that recently moved inland Central America is helping to enhance scattered moderate convection over some areas of Guatemala and the far southern section of the Yucatan Peninsula. Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted elsewhere. Isolated showers may be possible with some this moisture. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the far southwestern Caribbean. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen south of 11N and west of 80W to along the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. Hurricane Lee is near 14.9N 46.4W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Lee will strengthen to a major hurricane Fri afternoon near 18.6N 55.3W, then move to near 20.4N 59.4W Sat afternoon, near 22N63W Sun afternoon, and near 23N65W Mon afternoon. Lee could bring some impacts to the northern Leeward Islands Fri night through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Hurricane Lee and on the eastern Atlantic Invest AL96. A surface trough extends from near 29N60W to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with the trough that is a reflection of an upper-level trough extending across the western Atlantic. The surface trough will move westward over the next 48-72 hours as the Atlantic high pressure builds westward. Farther east, another surface trough enters the area through 31N51W and continues south 22N52W. Isolated showers are near the trough axis. Low pressure of 1013 mb, the remnants of Katia, is near 27N31.5W. Isolated showers are possible with the low. An area of 8 ft is associated with the low is over the waters roughly from 26N to 29N between 32W-36W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of weak high pressure centers. Outside of Lee, seas of 5-7 ft dominate most of the waters E of 55W. Over the far eastern part of the area, the western part of a cold front extends along 32N between 20W-26W. No significant convection is occurring with this front. For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Lee is near 14.9N 46.4W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Lee will strengthen to a major hurricane Fri afternoon near 18.6N 55.3W, then move to near 20.4N 59.4W Sat afternoon, near 22N63W Sun afternoon, and near 23N65W Mon afternoon. Lee could bring some impacts to the northern Leeward Islands Fri night through the weekend. $$ Aguirre