000 AXNT20 KNHC 060011 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Sep 06 2023 Corrected satellite imagery time Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lee is centered near 13.2N 41.8W, or about 1140 nm east of the Lesser Antilles at 05/2100 UTC moving west-northwest at 14 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are up to 12 ft. Latest GOES-E satellite imagery shows increasing convection of numerous to strong intensity exhibiting a banding pattern within 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Similar type convection is over the center. Scattered moderate convection is south of Lee within 30 nm of a line from 11N41W to 11N44W, and within 15 nm of an outside band that extends from 11N44W to 14N45W. Lee is forecast by the latest NHC advisory to maintain its current motion for the next few days with a slight reduction in forward speed. Lee is forecast to be a hurricane within a couple of days, and will likely become a major hurricane by Fri. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lee NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A strong far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 18W from 03N to 20N. A 1009 mb low is along the wave near 10N18W. The system is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Increasing numerous to strong convection is seen within 270 nm southwest of the low and within 240 nm northwest of the low. Latest satellite imagery depicts that convection northwest of the low may be organizing into a banding feature. The environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week or this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to move across the Cabo Verde Islands Wednesday night and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress. Please refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov for the latest Tropical Weather Outlook on this system. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 83W south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has recently developed within 60 nm east of the wave from 11N to 14N. Similar convection is west of the wave reaching the central sections of Nicaragua and inland northern Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal border of Senegal and Mauritania to the 1009 mb low pressure near 10N18W and to 11N27W to 12N34W. The ITCZ extends from 11N52W to 11N60W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the trough from 06N to 09N between 27W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is in the gap between the monsoon trough and the ITCZ from 08N to 11N between 46W-50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast trough extends from far NW Mexico southeastward to 22N96W and to coast of southeastern Mexico near 19N92W. Isolated showers are near the trough between 92W-94W. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure is over the area generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds throughout, with latest ASCAT data passes indicating that winds are more of then gentle speeds. Seas are of 2-3 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft north of 27N and east of 94W. For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern United States will support moderate east to southeast winds across most of the basin through tonight, and gentle to moderate winds thereafter through mid- week. Afterward, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds and slight seas the remainder of the forecast period, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds, mainly at night, just west of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A rather weak pressure pattern resides across the basin. However, high pressure north of the area in combination with lower pressures in northern South America supports moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean. Seas over these waters are 3-5 ft, with higher seas of 5-7 ft just north of the ABC Islands to about 15N. A slighter pronounced difference in pressures is allowing for strong trade winds to be south of 15N between 64W-78W. Seas with these winds are in the 5-8 ft range. Light to gentle winds and lower seas of 1-3 ft are elsewhere. Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow along with possible isolated showers are over some areas of the eastern and western sections of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend, except for developing fresh to strong winds in the south-central waters tonight into Wed. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lee is near 13.2N 41.8W at 5 PM EDT moving west- northwest at 14 kt. Maximum winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Lee will strengthen to a hurricane near 15N48.5W early Thu morning, strengthen to a major hurricane near 18N56W Fri afternoon, and move to near 22N64W Sun afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lee, and on the tropical wave that is along 18W with attendant low pressure. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Katia is located near 28N34W with a pressure of 1012 mb. Earlier noted convection near the low has shifted east-northeast and diminished to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Fresh east winds are north of the low along with seas of 8-9 ft in long-period north swell. These conditions will diminish Wed morning. A broad upper-level trough extends from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba. An area of scattered to numerous moderate convection exists east of the trough from 20N to 27N and between 62W-74W. Over the central Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from 31N49W to near 23N54W. The earlier scattered moderate convection that was near the southern part of the trough has weakened to isolated showers and thunderstorms from 21N to 24N between 45W-51W. Over the far eastern Atlantic, a weak 1016 mb high pressure center is just west of the Canary Islands. The pressure gradient remains rather light over the eastern and central Atlantic, except near the tropical wave that is along 18W and Tropical Storm Lee. For the forecast west of 55W, seas of 7 to 8 ft in N to NE swell are occurring over much of the area east of the Bahamas. This swell event will continue to subside through tonight, with seas lowering to less than 8 ft by late tonight. Tropical Storm Lee is near 13.2N 41.8W at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Max winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Lee will strengthen to a hurricane near 15N48.5W early Thu morning, strengthen to a major hurricane near 18N56W Fri afternoon, and move to near 22N64W Sun afternoon. $$ Aguirre