496 AXNT20 KNHC 051014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Sep 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little better organized over the past several hours. The low pressure is along a tropical wave with axis along 37W/38W. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so while the low moves toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 kt across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional strengthening, possibly to a hurricane, is likely later this week while the system moves over western portions of the tropical Atlantic, near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The disturbance has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A strong tropical wave is along 16W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave axis remains over western Africa producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the middle to latter part of the week while the system moves to the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 kt. This system is expected to move across the Cabo Verde Islands Wednesday night and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 79W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues westward to a 1009 mb low pressure (AL95) located near 11.5N37.5W to 11N53W. The ITCZ extends from 11N53W to 11N60W. Aside from the convection discussed in the Special Features and Tropical Waves section, isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed near the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 45W and the Windward Islands. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the SE US dominates the Gulf waters producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds with the exception of moderate to fresh winds just W of Florida, and in the Straits of Florida as well as near the coast of Texas. A weak surface trough is over the western Yucatan Peninsula generating a few showers. Elsewhere, patches of low-level moisture, with possible showers, are seen across the eastern Gulf waters. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, high pressure over the SE US will support moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin through tonight, and gentle to moderate winds thereafter through mid-week. Afterward, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds and slight seas the remainder of the forecast period, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds, mainly at night, just W of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. A few showers are near the trough axis. The northern end of a tropical wave, with axis along 79W, appears to enhance some convective activity over easter Cuba, and between Jamaica and Cuba. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are noted elsewhere. High pressure N of the area combined with lower pressures in northern South America supports moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3 to 5 ft, with an area of 5 to 7 ft just N of the ABC Islands to about 15N. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean the entire forecast period, except for developing fresh to strong winds in the south-central waters tonight into Wed. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to become a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next day or so, and should cross 55W by Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest 95L. The remnant low of Katia is located near 28N34W. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is observed on the N and W sides of the low center. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong easterly winds north of the center with seas of 8 to 10 ft. A surface trough extends from 26N64W to the Windward Passage. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with the trough that is a reflection of an upper-level low over the western Atlantic. The surface trough will drift westward over the next 48-72 hours. Farther east, a stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N50W and extends southward to 25N52W. Water vapor satellite imagery depict a strong upper level low near 30N43W generating isolated showers and thunderstorms. The interaction of these weather systems sustain scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 23N to 28N and between 47W and 53W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of weak high pressure centers. For the forecast W of 55W, seas of 8 to 10 ft in N to NE swell are occurring over much of the area N of 26N E of 65W. This swell event will continue to subside today with seas less than 8 ft by tonight. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to become a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next day or so, and should cross 55W by Fri. $$ GR