000 AXNT20 KNHC 050022 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Sep 05 2023 Corrected Tropical Waves section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Katia became a post-tropical cyclone at 2100 UTC near 28.0N 34.4W, or about 920 nm NW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are to its north from 28N to 30N between 31W-36W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are from 27N to 31N between 35W-36W along with seas of 9-12 ft. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the last Katia NHC Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Invest AL95: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W. Low pressure of 1010 mb is along the tropical wave near 12N. Satellite imagery shows increasing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 180 nm either side of the wave and low from 12N to 15N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 08N12N. This activity has changed little in organization through the day. Strong to near gale- force winds and seas of 8 ft are from 12N to 13N between 35W-37W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so while the low moves toward the west-northwest across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional strengthening, possibly to a hurricane is likely later this week while the system moves over western portions of the tropical Atlantic, near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected A strong tropical wave that is over western Africa is forecast to move off the African coast on Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the middle to latter part of the week while the system moves to the west or west- northwestward. This system is expected to move across the Cabo Verde Islands Wednesday night and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 76W south of 19N. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the wave from 10N to 13N. The Caribbean Sea tropical wave that previously had its axis along 86W/87W and south of 19N has moved inland Central America. Please refer to the eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Discussion for the latest details on this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W through the INVEST AL95 low pressure and to 10N39W. The ITCZ continues from 10N39W to 09N44W to 07N55W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is between from 07N to 14N between 15W-20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from the western tip of Cuba curving northwestward to 25N87W and to just south New Orleans, Louisiana. ASCAT data shows gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are east of the dissipating front, while moderate or lighter southeast winds are west of the front. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving westward are over the central Gulf waters from 22N to 25N between 90-92W. Isolated showers are elsewhere west of the dissipating front to near 94W. Elsewhere, generally weak high pressure is present. A 1016 mb high pressure center is in interior Mexico near 19N97W and a 1014 mb high pressure center is near 21N101W. Seas throughout are in the range of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern United States will support mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across most of the basin through tonight, and gentle to moderate thereafter through mid- week. Afterward, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds and slight seas the remainder of the forecast period, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds just west of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon is along 09N to Colombia near 09N75W. The gradient across the basin supports moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern part and moderate and lighter trade winds elsewhere. Altimeter data indicates seas in the range of 4-6 feet over the central section of the sea and lower seas of 3-4 ft east of 70W, and 1-3 ft west of 70W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are confined from 11N to 14N between 77W and the coast of Nicaragua. Similar activity is over Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean the entire forecast period, except for developing fresh to strong winds in the south-central waters Tue night into Wed. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure located several hundred nm west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm within a day or two, and should cross 55W by Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Post- Tropical Cyclone Katia and on Invest AL95. A dissipating stationary front extends from near 31N53W to 23N60W and to the southeast part of Cuba. Increasing scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of the stationary front to near 26N between the Bahamas and 63W. This activity is being enhanced by the tail-end of an upper-level trough that stretches from 31N67W to 26N70W to near eastern Cuba. A large and nearly stationary upper-level cyclonic circulation center is identified on water vapor imagery to be near 29N43W. An area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N to 28N between 44W-55W. Seas are 8 feet and higher north of the Greater Antilles and west of 60W westward, with the exception of lower seas of 3-5 ft between the Bahamas and Florida. Higher seas of 7-11 ft are north of 19N between 50W-60W. Seas are from 3-6 ft over the rest of the area. Moderate to fresh and west-northwest winds are north of 29N between the dissipating stationary front and 65W, while moderate to fresh northeast winds are from 15N to 25N and east of about 26W. Moderate or lighter trade winds are over the remainder of the area. For the forecast, Seas of 7-9 ft in N to NE swell are occurring over much of the area east of 75W and north of 20N today. The swell will gradually subside through Tue. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure located several hundred nm west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm within a day or two, and should cross 55W by Fri. $$ Aguirre