000 AXNT20 KNHC 300942 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Aug 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Idalia is centered near 29.1N 84.1W at 30/0900 UTC or 50 nm W of Cedar Key Florida, moving NNE at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are currently around 37 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the eye, with scattered moderate to strong convection in bands between 90 nm and 240 nm in the SE semicircle, and between 150 nm and 360 nm in in the NE semicircle. Idalia could continue to strengthen before it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida in a few hours. While Idalia should weaken after landfall, it is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today. Idalia should emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Thursday and move eastward through late week. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with considerable impacts, are expected from the Florida Big Ben through, central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina into Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Idalia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Hurricane Franklin is centered N of the area near 33.0N 68.2W at 30/0900 UTC or 180 nm WNW of Bermuda, moving NE at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are currently 38 ft. Tropical storm force winds are now confined to the waters N of 31N, however fresh to strong winds and seas of 12 ft or greater still extend S of 31N. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the eye, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere within 240 nm in the N semicircle. On Thursday, Franklin is forecast to turn toward the east-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today. Additional weakening is forecast over the next several days. Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin are already affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next several days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Depression Eleven is centered near 28.2N 52.1W at 30/0900 UTC or 700 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving E at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 10 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm in the SE semicircle. Eleven will likely continue to meander slowly for the next day or so. A slightly faster northward motion is expected to begin in about a day. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. The system is expected to become a remnant low within the next couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Eleven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. AL94 in the eastern Atlantic Ocean: Low pressure of 1008 mb is located along a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands at 15.5N23W. Winds are currently to 25 kt with seas of around 8 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident wihtin 210 nm in the W quadrant, and also between 150 nm and 300 nm in the SE semicircle of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system initially moves west-northwestward and then turns northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 22W/23W, S of 21N. Refer to the Special Features section for more details on this tropical wave with Invest AL94 along it. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 53W, S of 17N, moving W at around 20 kt. No significant convection is noted. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 65W, from near the Mona Passage S to Venezuela, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 12N to 15N between 67W and 68W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W to low pressure, Invest AL94, near 15.5N23W to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to 06N43W to 09N52W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 11N54W to 11N60W. Other than the convection described above, scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 07N between 38W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Hurricane Idalia whose center is in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Outside of Idalia which currently influences the basin, a stationary front extends from near New Orleans, Louisiana to along the upper and middle Texas coast. Gentle to moderate winds prevail away from Idalia. Seas are 2-4 ft W of 92W, and 4-7 E of 92W away from Idalia. For the forecast, Idalia will move inland to 31.0N 82.7W this afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 33.1N 79.6W Thu morning then continuing near the South Carolina coast. High pressure and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of Idalia Thu and Fri, and persist through the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Wave section for a tropical wave S of the Mona Passage. Hurricane Idalia is in the far NE Gulf of Mexico and continues to move away from the NW Caribbean Sea region. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds are W of 80W. Moderate to fresh trades are E of 80W, locally strong in the S-central Caribbean. Seas are 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean, 1-3 ft in the SW Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except to 8 ft in the S-central Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse in the central Caribbean through Fri night. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail in the western Caribbean and moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean through then as well. Trades will weaken this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Hurricane Franklin, Hurricane Idalia, Tropical Depression Eleven, and Invest AL94. Other than these four systems, a 1016 mb low pressure area, the remnants of Gert, is located near 26.5N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the N quadrant and 120 nm elsewhere in the SE semicircle. Winds are likely currently around 20 kt, although earlier they may have been higher per ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are currently around 6 ft. Environmental conditions do not appear to be that favorable for additional development over the next couple of days as the system drifts slowly northward or north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development by the weekend. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from near 31N30W through 23N50W to the central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the open waters, along with seas of 3-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, Franklin will continue to move N away from the area to 34.0N 66.6W this afternoon. Meanwhile, Idalia will move inland to 31.0N 82.7W this afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 33.1N 79.6W Thu morning, 33.8N 76.1W Thu afternoon, 33.3N 72.7W Fri morning, 32.4N 70.7W Fri afternoon, and 31.5N 69.5W Sat morning. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to 30.7N 68.0W early Sun. $$ Lewitsky