000 AXNT20 KNHC 290603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Aug 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. The center of CATEGORY FOUR Hurricane Franklin, at 29/0600 UTC, is near 29.8N 71.0W. This position also is about 355 nm/655 km to the WSW of Bermuda. FRANKLIN is moving toward the N, or 360 degrees, 08 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 130 knots with gusts to 160 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 130 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Hurricane-force winds are: within 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 25 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 20 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 20 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 220 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 37 feet. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 180 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. The hazards that are forecast to affect land are: surf and wind. Tropical Storm Idalia is centered near 22.6N 85.0W at 29/0600 UTC or 50 nm N of the western tip of Cuba, moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 80 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 130 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 50 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 19 feet. The hazards that are forecast to affect land are: storm surge, wind, rainfall, and surf. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 125 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the rest of the inland and water areas that are from Nicaragua northward between Jamaica and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward between 80W and 84W, in Florida and in the surrounding waters. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. Please, refer to the following website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more information about Tropical Storm Idalia and Hurricane FRANKLIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W, from 18N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 02N to 10N between 34W and 45W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N to 17N between 50W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal borders of Mauritania near 19N16W, to 10N30W, and 07N44W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 07N to 20N from 20W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Idalia, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel. The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. All the action is centering around the expectations of Tropical Storm Idalia, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough passes through south central Louisiana to the upper Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward between 87W and 94W. The sea heights are reaching: 6 feet and higher in the SE corner; from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere from 90W eastward; 3 feet in the west central Gulf; 1 foot off the coast of the middle Texas Gulf coast; 2 feet elsewhere. Moderate or slower wind speeds are everywhere. Tropical Storm Idalia is near 22.0N 85.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Idalia will strengthen to a hurricane near 23.7N 85.0W Tue morning, move to 26.2N 84.6W Tue evening, 29.0N 83.7W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.5N 81.6W Wed evening, 33.2N 78.8W Thu morning, and 34.0N 76.0W Thu evening. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to 33.5N 72.0W late Fri. High pressure and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of Idalia late in the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Idalia, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights are reaching: from 2 feet to 4 feet from 80W eastward, except for 1 foot in the coastal waters in the SW corner of the area; and from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere from 80W westward, away from T.S. Idalia. Mostly moderate to some fresh SE winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate to fresh SE winds are in the northern half of the central one-third of the area. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere between 70W and 80W. Tropical Storm Idalia is near 22.0N 85.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Idalia will strengthen to a hurricane near 23.7N 85.0W Tue morning, move to 26.2N 84.6W Tue evening, 29.0N 83.7W Wed morning and continuing to move away from the Caribbean basin. As Idalia moves farther N into the Gulf of Mexico on Tue, conditions will improve in the NW Caribbean. High pressure will build westward across the western Atlantic through Thu as Hurricane Franklin lifts north of the region. This will lead to moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean by tonight, then in the central Caribbean by Tue, locally strong there. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane Franklin. A 1016 mb low pressure center (AL92) is near 28N52W. A surface trough is along 29N45W, to the low pressure center, to 27N56W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 26N to 28N between 50W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N northward between 44W and 60W. Recent satellite wind data also indicates that its circulation has become better defined. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development over the next couple of days before becoming more unfavorable by the latter part of this week as the system drifts slowly over the central subtropical Atlantic. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is from 21N to 24N between 56W and 63W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N to 28N between 55W and 66W. Strong or faster NE winds are within 600 nm to the southeast of the line 34N19W 28N26W 20N30W. Fresh winds are from 22N from 63W westward, around the periphery of Hurricane Franklin. Moderate NE winds are within 360 nm to the south of the line 23N36W 17N53W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are elsewhere. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 10 feet from 20N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the area that is from 25N northward from 40W eastward. Precipitation: all the precipitation is from 31N northward between 20W and 40W. Major Hurricane Franklin is near 29.4N 71.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 926 mb. Franklin will move to 30.5N 70.8W Tue morning, moving N of the area 32.1N 69.7W Tue evening, then to 33.9N 67.7W Wed morning when outer associated conditions will lift N of 31N. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Idalia is near the Yucatan Channel near 22.0N 85.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Idalia will strengthen to a hurricane in the SE Gulf Tue morning, move to 29.0N 83.7W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.5N 81.6W Wed evening, 33.2N 78.8W Thu morning, and 34.0N 76.0W Thu evening. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to 33.5N 72.0W late Fri. Expect increasing winds and building seas E of Florida beginning Tue night as Idalia moves across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. $$ mt/jl