000 AXNT20 KNHC 280908 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Aug 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Franklin is centered near 27.2N 70.8W at 28/0900 UTC or 340 nm N of Grand Turk Island, moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are currently around 33 ft. An eye has been apparent in satellite imagery and numerous moderate to strong convection is evident within 75 nm of the center with numerous moderate elsewhere within 150 nm of the center. A gradual turn toward the north and north-northeast with a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Some additional strengthening is forecast today, but gradual weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon. Swells generated by Franklin are beginning to affect Bermuda. These swells are expected to spread toward the east coast of the United States during the next couple of days, likely resulting in life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Idalia is centered near 20.1N 85.2W at 28/0900 UTC or 110 nm S of the western tip of Cuba, moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 ft per NDBC Buoy 42056 in the NW Caribbean Sea near Idalia. Numerous moderate to strong convection is evident within 135 nm in the SE semicircle and 45 nm in the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is evident elsewhere within 210 nm in the SE semicircle and 90 nm in the NW semicircle. Additional deep convection is noted in a band across portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras including the Gulf of Honduras. A continued northward motion is forecast bringing the center of Idalia near or over western Cuba tonight and over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday. On the forecast track, Idalia is forecast to increase in forward speed and turn north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a dangerous major hurricane over northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Idalia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 36W, from 17N southward, moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 35W and 38W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 52W, from 16N southward, moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 50W and 54W, and from 11N to 13N between 46W and 50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal borders of Senegal and Mauritania to 09N34W to 11N51W. Other than the convection described in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 12W and 18W, and from 05N to 10N between 21W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Idalia, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel. A cold front is stalling from near New Orleans, Louisiana to offshore SW Louisiana and the upper Texas coast to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Weak 1012 mb high pressure is analyzed in the W-central Gulf just N of Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the basin away from the Yucatan Channel where hazardous conditions are present due to the proximity of Idalia to the south. For the forecast, Idalia will strengthen to a hurricane near 21.1N 85.1W this afternoon, move to 22.6N 85.1W Tue morning, 24.8N 84.8W Tue afternoon, 27.7N 84.0W Wed morning, inland to 30.7N 82.1W Wed afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.8N 79.0W Thu morning. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to 34.5N 72.0W early Fri. High pressure and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of Idalia late in the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Idalia whose center is in the Yucatan Channel. Away from Idalia, gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere away from the NW Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, Idalia will strengthen to a hurricane near 21.1N 85.1W this afternoon, move to 22.6N 85.1W Tue morning, 24.8N 84.8W Tue afternoon, 27.7N 84.0W Wed morning, inland to 30.7N 82.1W Wed afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.8N 79.0W Thu morning. Other than Idalia, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin E of 80W through early Mon. High pressure will build westward across the western Atlantic late Mon through Thu as Hurricane Franklin lifts north of the region. This will lead to moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean by Mon night, then in the central Caribbean by Tue, locally strong there. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Idalia. Other than Franklin, a trough is from 29N55W to 27N50W, the remnants of former Invest AL92. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 26N to 29N between 48W and 52W. A weak trough extends from 31N34W to 28N41W with limited fanfare. N of 19N and E of 25W to the coast of Africa, fresh to near-gale force NE winds and 7-11 ft seas prevail due to a tight pressure gradient across the region. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-6 ft dominate the remainder of the open tropical Atlantic waters. For the forecast W of 55W, Franklin will move to 28.3N 71.1W this afternoon, 29.8N 71.0W Tue morning, N of the area to 31.6N 70.2W Tue afternoon, 33.2N 68.6W Wed morning, then continuing northward away from the area. Meanwhile, Idalia will strengthen to a hurricane near 21.1N 85.1W this afternoon, move to 22.6N 85.1W Tue morning, 24.8N 84.8W Tue afternoon, 27.7N 84.0W Wed morning, inland to 30.7N 82.1W Wed afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.8N 79.0W Thu morning. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to 34.5N 72.0W early Fri. Expect producing increasing winds and seas offshore of central and northern Florida with the passage of Idalia. $$ Lewitsky