054 AXNT20 KNHC 271713 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Aug 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1705 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Franklin is centered near 25.1N 69.3W at 27/1500 UTC or 240 nm NNE of Grand Turk Island, moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are around 33 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 21N to 28N and between 62W and 74W. The current motion will continue through today, followed by a northward and north- northeastward motion into the early part of the week. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Franklin could become a major hurricane later today or tonight. Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting Bermuda by tonight. These swells are also likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions beginning late today through the beginning of this week along portions of the east coast of the United States. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Idalia is centered near 19.9N 85.8W at 27/1500 UTC or 70 nm ESE of Cozumel Mexico, moving E at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is found north of 16N and west of 77W, covering most of the NW Caribbean. Idalia is likely likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through tonight. A faster motion toward the north is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Idalia is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Heavy rainfall from Idalia is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides, across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to late week. Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Franklin and Idalia. Gale Warning in the far E Atlantic Ocean: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning in place for the Agadir zone until 28/0000 UTC. Latest satellite-derived wind data captured strong to near gale-force northerly winds off Morocco. Seas are 8-12 ft. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo- France at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/ for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N and between 26W and 35W. The northern portion of the wave is devoid of convection. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W, south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 08N to 14N and between 41W and 49W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N30W and 10N50W. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on the convection. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES for details on Tropical Storm Idalia in the NW Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from NW Yucatan to the coast of Tamaulipas, producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 24N and west of 93W. A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate or weaker winds. Seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the south-central and SW Gulf, while 1-3 ft are occurring elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Idalia is over the NW Caribbean near 19.9N 85.8W at 11 AM EDT, moving east at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Idalia will drift eastward to near 19.7N 85.9W this evening, move to 20.6N 85.7W Mon morning, move to near 21.9N 85.5W Mon evening, to near 24.0N 85.2W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 26.2N 85.0W Tue evening, and to near 28.9N 84.0W Wed morning. Idalia will weaken to a tropical storm while moving NE and inland across northern Florida Wed afternoon through evening. High pressure and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of Idalia late in the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES for details on Tropical Storm Idalia in the NW Caribbean Sea. Aside from Idalia, a weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean Sea. Moderate SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present in the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent in the central Caribbean. No significant convection is seen in the central or eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Idalia is near 19.9N 85.8W at 11 AM EDT, moving east at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Idalia will be near 19.7N 85.9W this evening, move to near 20.6N 85.7W Mon morning, to near 21.9N 85.5W Mon evening, to near 24.0N 85.2W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 26.2N 85.0W Tue evening, and move well N of the area near 28.9N 84.0W Wed morning. Other than Idalia, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin E of 80W through Mon. High pressure will build westward across the western Atlantic Tue through Thu as Hurricane Franklin lifts north of the region. This will lead to moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean early in the week, then in the central Caribbean by mid- week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Hurricane Franklin, and for details on Tropical Storm Idalia which could impact the waters off the SE United States. Outside of Franklin, a surface trough is located between Florida and the NW Bahamas, generating a few showers that are evident on radar imagery. Meanwhile, a couple of surface troughs located to the northeast of the Leeward Islands are generating a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate that the strongest storms are producing fresh to strong winds. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1033 mb high pressure system north of the Azores, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas to the west of 25W. East of 25W and north of 20N, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa sustain fresh to near gale-force northerly winds. Seas in these waters are 6-12 ft, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring within 90 nm of the African coast. For the forecast, Hurricane Franklin is near 25.1N 69.3W at 11 AM EDT, moving north-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Franklin will continue to strengthen and move to 26.0N 70.0W this evening, to near 27.4N 70.7W Mon morning, to near 28.9N 70.8W Mon evening, to near 30.4N 70.4W Tue morning, and move well N of the area near 33.4N 67.0W Wed morning. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Idalia is in the NW Caribbean near 19.9N 85.8W at 11 AM EDT, and moving east at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Idalia is forecast to move N-NE across the eastern Gulf of Mexico early this coming week and then across northern Florida Wed afternoon and night, producing increasing winds and seas offshore of central and northern Florida. $$ DELGADO