000 AXNT20 KNHC 270906 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Aug 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Franklin is centered near 24.7N 68.7W at 27/0900 UTC or 230 nm NE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are around 30 ft as of 09 UTC. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center, elsewhere from 22N to 25N between 70W and 73W, in a band between 75 nm and 150 nm in the N semicircle, and in another band between 150 nm and 240 nm in the SE quadrant. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward and north-northeastward motion into the early part of the week. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 24 hours, and Franklin could become a major hurricane by tonight. Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting Bermuda by tonight. These swells are also likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions beginning late today through the beginning of this week along portions of the east coast of the United States. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 20.1N 86.8W at 27/0900 UTC or 30 nm SSE of Cozumel Mexico, moving S at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft as of 09 UTC. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the S semicircle, and in a band between 60 nm and 240 nm in the SE semicircle. Similar convection is noted in a band well away from the center between 360 nm and 660 nm in the E quadrant, and from 14N to 17N between 83W and 86W. Ten is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides, across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to late week. Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Ten NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning in the far E Atlantic Ocean: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning in place for the Agadir zone from 12 UTC until 00 UTC this evening for N-NE gale force winds. Seas may be 8-11 ft. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/ for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 27W, from 20N southward, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 27W and 37W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 46W, from 14N southward, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 41W and 51W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12.5N17W to 10N40W. No ITCZ is evident in the Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 18W and 22W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Depression Ten, whose center is near the Yucatan Channel. Outside of T.D. Ten, weak ridging extends along 27N with gentle to moderate winds. Seas are 1-3 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the W-central Gulf from 20N to 25N between 94W and the coast of Mexico due to a mid to upper level feature. For the forecast, Ten will strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.1N 86.5W this afternoon, move to 20.6N 86.3W Mon morning, 21.7N 86.3W Mon afternoon, 23.3N 86.2W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.7N 85.7W Tue afternoon, and 28.5N 84.7W Wed morning. Ten will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over 33.0N 81.2W early Thu. High pressure and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of Ten late in the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Depression Ten, whose center is near the Yucatan Channel. Outside of T.D. Ten, a weak pressure pattern dominates the basin. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail, except light to gentle in the central Caribbean. Seas are 1-3 ft. Convection in the basin is described above. For the forecast, Ten will strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.1N 86.5W this afternoon, move to 20.6N 86.3W Mon morning, 21.7N 86.3W Mon afternoon, 23.3N 86.2W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.7N 85.7W Tue afternoon, and move well N to 28.5N 84.7W Wed morning. Other than Ten, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin through the remainder of the weekend, increasing to moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean early in the week, then in the central Caribbean by mid-week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Hurricane Franklin, and for details on Tropical Depression Ten which could impact the waters off the SE United States. Outside of Franklin, gentle to moderate winds prevail W of 55W, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from 13N to 21N between 54W and 61W, and from 24N to 26N between 56W and 60W. To the E, 1012 mb low pressure (invest AL92) is located near 27N51.5W with winds of 20 kt or less, and seas around 6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm in the S and SW quadrants, and 120 nm in the N quadrant. A 1015 mb low pressure area is located near 28N33W along a NE to SW trough. Some scattered thunderstorms are N of 30N between 29W and 33W. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas dominate the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Franklin will move to 25.6N 69.4W this afternoon, 26.9N 70.3W Mon morning, 28.4N 70.6W Mon afternoon, 29.9N 70.4W Tue morning, 31.3N 69.5W Tue afternoon, moving well N of the area to 33.0N 67.9W Wed morning. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Ten is forecast to move across northern Florida Tue night through Wed, with increasing winds and seas offshore northern Florida. $$ Lewitsky