000 AXNT20 KNHC 270559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Aug 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Ten is in the Yucatan Channel, near 20.7N 86.8W,at 27/0600 UTC. This position also is 13 nm, or 25 km, to the NNE of Cozumel in Mexico. T.D. TEN is moving toward the SW, or 230 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Expect winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights less than 8 feet, from 20N to 23N between 85W and 88W. The hazards that are forecast to affect land are: rainfall, tropical storm-force winds, and storm surge. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 630 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 480 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 180 nm of the center in the N semicircle. The center of Hurricane Franklin, at 27/0300 UTC, is near 23.9N 68.2W. FRANKLIN is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees, 07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 100 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 80 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Hurricane-force winds are: within 20 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 10 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights that are near the center are 27 feet. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and in the SW quadrant, and from 23N to 24N between 64W and 65W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from the northern sides of the Caribbean Sea islands to 27N between 60W and 73W. The swells that are being generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting Bermuda by Sunday night. It is likely that these swells are going to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions late this weekend into early next week, in parts of the U.S.A. east coast. Please, consult bulletins/forecasts from your local weather office. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. Please, refer to the following website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more information about Tropical Depression TEN, and Hurricane FRANKLIN, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 20N southward, moving westward 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave and within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 10N to 18N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 720 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from the monsoon trough southward for 340 nm. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 14N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to 13N between 41W and 50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 10N26W, and 10N41W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 720 nm to the west of the 25W/26W tropical wave, from the monsoon trough southward for 340 nm. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Depression Ten, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel. The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. All the action is centering around the expectations of Tropical Depression Ten, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights are reaching: 4 feet in the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and in the coastal waters of Mexico along 20N; 3 feet off the NE coast of Mexico; 1 foot off the west central coast of Florida; 2 feet elsewhere. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, away from the developing Tropical Depression TEN. Tropical Depression Ten is near 21.1N 86.4W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving southwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Ten will strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.9N 86.4W Sun morning, move to 20.9N 86.2W Sun evening, 21.6N 85.9W Mon morning, 23.1N 85.7W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.0N 85.5W Tue morning, and 27.5N 84.8W Tue evening. Ten will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over 32.7N 81.5W late Wed. High pressure and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of Ten late in the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Depression Ten, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights are reaching: 2 feet to 3 feet in the far NW corner of the area; 2 feet in the coastal waters of Venezuela and Colombia, and in the coastal waters of Puerto Rico; 1 foot elsewhere. Mostly gentle to some moderate winds cover the entire area, away from the developing Tropical Depression TEN. The monsoon trough passes through 10N73W in Colombia, to 08.5N80W in Panama, beyond NW Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 125 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between NW Venezuela and 79W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 60 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. Tropical Depression Ten is near 21.1N 86.4W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving southwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Ten will strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.9N 86.4W Sun morning, move to 20.9N 86.2W Sun evening, 21.6N 85.9W Mon morning, moving away from the area to 23.1N 85.7W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.0N 85.5W Tue morning, and 27.5N 84.8W Tue evening. Other than Ten, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin through the remainder of the weekend, increasing to moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean early in the week, then in the central Caribbean by mid-week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane Franklin. INVEST AL92 is a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 26N50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is 20N northward between 40W and 55W. Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 6 feet, are from 20N northward between 44W and 56W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the area that is from 20N northward between 20W and 43W. A surface trough passes through 31N32W, to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 28N33W, to 23N35W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward between 20W and 36W. The sea heights in this area are ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet. Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the E and SE of the line 31N18W 23N24W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from 20N northward from 45W eastward. Moderate or slower wind speeds, and moderate seas, cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Franklin is near 23.9N 68.2W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Franklin will move to 24.9N 68.9W Sun morning, 26.2N 69.8W Sun evening, 27.6N 70.4W Mon morning, 29.2N 70.4W Mon evening, 30.8N 69.9W Tue morning, and 32.5N 68.9W Tue evening. Franklin will change little in intensity as it moves well N of the area to 35.8N 63.7W late Wed. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Ten is in the NW Caribbean Sea near 21.1N 86.4W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving southwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Ten is forecast to move across northern Florida Tue night into Wed, moving inland over 32.7N 81.5W late Wed with increasing winds and seas offshore northern Florida. $$ mt/jl