000 AXNT20 KNHC 262320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Aug 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 21.1N 86.1W at 26/2100 UTC or 60 nm NE of Cozumel Mexico, stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection stretches across the Yucatan Channel, NW Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico from 18N to 24N between 80W and 90W. Seas are currently near 6 ft N of the Yucatan channel. The depression will have little overall movement through Sunday. A slow, generally northward, motion is expected to begin on Monday. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday. Seas over 12 ft can be expected by Mon and will continue to build as TD Ten moves northward on Mon. Hurricane Franklin is centered near 23.8N 67.5W at 26/2100 UTC or 240 nm NE of Grand Turk Island, moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 22N to 26N between 65W and 70W. Peak seas are currently near 19 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 150 nm in the eastern semicircle, 90 nm in the NW quadrant and 45 nm in the SW quadrant. Franklin will continue moving NNW to N over the western Atlantic through early next week. Further strengthening is forecast, and Franklin could become a major hurricane early next week. Seas near the center will build to over 20 ft by Sun night and will continue to be over 20 ft through at least midweek. Meanwhile, swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting Bermuda by Sunday night. These swells are also likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions late this weekend into early next week along portions of the east coast of the United States. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest TD Ten and Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis, bringing some rain activity to the Cabo Verde Islands. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 13N and between 40W and 50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W to 09N34W to 10N50W. The ITCZ is not present at this time. The current convection is associated with tropical waves described in the section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Tropical Depression Ten centered in the Yucatan Channel. Water vapor satellite imagery depict an upper level low over Mexico and a weak surface trough extends from NW Yucatan to Tamaulipas. Divergence aloft results in isolated to scattered moderate convection persisting north of the surface trough to 26N. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a weak 1013 mb high pressure system centered in western basin. Outside of the southern Gulf influenced by TD Ten, moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail across most of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure across the central U.S. will shift slightly SE through early Mon. Tropical Depression Ten will meander about the Yucatan Channel while gradually strengthening through early Mon, then move to near 22.0N 85.7W Mon afternoon, to near 24.0N 85.6W Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 26.3N 85.3W Tue afternoon, then move inland across the Florida Big Bend early Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Tropical Depression Ten centered in the Yucatan Channel. Aside from Tropical Depression Ten, a surface trough extends across Hispaniola to 20N80W. This feature combined with plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft sustain scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection north of 13N and between 69W and 79W. These storms are also affecting SE Cuba. Generally dry conditions are prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient maintains primarily light to gentle variable winds, except for stronger winds near the areas of strong convection. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Caribbean. For the forecast, light to gentle winds, locally moderate in the S-central and SE Caribbean, and slight seas will prevail across the basin through the weekend as Hurricane Franklin moves northward and away from the Caribbean region. Tropical Depression Ten will meander about the Yucatan Channel through early Mon while gradually strengthening to a Tropical Storm, then move northward to near 22.0N 85.7W Mon afternoon, to near 24.0N 85.6W Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 26.3N 85.3W Tue afternoon. High pressure will build modestly across the Atlc to the N of the region Tue and Wed to bring a return to moderate to fresh trade winds E of 80W, locally strong in the central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Hurricane Franklin. The stationary boundary previously stretching southwest of Bermuda has weakened into a surface trough. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure system (Invest 92L) is located near 25N50W in the central Atlantic and producing a large area and elongated area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from 22N to 31N and between 44W and 56W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are occurring in the area described. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours. Another weak low pressure is centered near 28N33W with a trough extending along the low from 31N30W to 28N40W. Convective activity associated with this system is occurring north of 31N. The remainder of the basin, outside of the deep tropics, is under the dominance of a dry airmass. The pressure gradient between a ridge north of the Azores and lower pressures over NW Africa support fresh northerly winds off Western Sahara, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Franklin is expected to strengthen during the next few days, and will move to near 24.7N 68.1W Sun morning, near 25.9N 68.9W Sun afternoon, near 27.1N 69.6W Mon morning, to near 28.7N 69.9W Mon afternoon, to near 30.3N 69.9W Tue morning, and exit the area moving N-NE Tue afternoon and evening. High pressure will build westward across the region Tue and Wed as Franklin exits. Winds are expected to increase offshore Florida Tue night through Wed as a Tropical Depression Ten moves N-NE across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. $$ AReinhart